Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the Shriners Children's Open
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB)
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP)
Strokes Gained Putting (SG P)
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - Combination stat.
Using they key stats from last year we know that these are the key stats, but the issue is we have only seen this course in play once on the tour. They could choose to try to make this years tournament play more difficult.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last years course history is the most important. I will also be looking at the last 3 years tournament history as well.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
This is the first time I somewhat like the week that we have for PGA DFS, it is not perfect, but we are getting some good plays at some good prices.
Weather:
Overall the weather is not a big issue this week, but I do think it makes sense to target AM only tee times on Thursday for Showdown slates, and betting for FRL.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
I will not be betting on Keith Mitchell, but I am happy to fire off Ben Griffin, Doug Ghim, and JJ Spaun as outright bets.
Other Bets:
Jhonattan Vegas 30/1
Rico Hoey 36/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag.
Takeaways:
Doug Ghim is the one course play that we have this week via the data, and I completely agree. He is a good stat fit, finished top 15 at this tournament last year, and he is in great form making 6 straight cuts in a row and is coming in with a recent top 5 finish.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
JJ Spaun I view as more of a GPP only type play. I think he holds great upside, and I think he can win, but I do like some plays that are priced lower than him slightly more.
Justin Lower I guess I see why the data likes him as a play, but I see him more as a lineup filler type play rather than someone I am going out of my way to target.
Ben Griffin I can fully get behind.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
This is why I somewhat like this week, we have so many quality plays that are good enough, now some of these plays I like a little bit more but I think all of these golfers are solid options.
I like Max Greyersman a lot this week, he is in the best form in the field, the only slight concern with Greyersman is his price, if he finishes around top 20 instead of top 10 he would not be paying off his price.
Jhonattan Vegas, and Rico Hoey I really like as they are great stat fits that are in great form. I think they make for great plays this week at a tournament which most likely will promote the need to score.
Matt Kuchar tends to play well at tracks like this, and that is proven with his 2nd place finish last year. I think he is a great play.
Austin Eckroat has played extremely well in Mexico finishing 23rd at this course last year, and finished 38th, and 12th at this event in 2023, and 2021. Eckroat is a good enough stat fit across the board, and has made 4 straight cuts in a row.
Scott Piercy is a great cheap made cut option.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
*Note Cameron Young WD from this tournament.
I do agree with these plays being Lowe Exposure plays, because they are all a little bit risky, but I do expect Glover, Fishburn, Berger, Bridgeman, and Neal Shipley to all have solid week.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Ghim, Griffin, Eckroat, Greyserman
GPP: Spaun, Vegas, Hoey, Kizzire, EVR
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
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