Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB)
200+ Scoring (200+)
Ball Striking (BS)
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5)
Success at this course is all about scoring, golfers that can make birdies and make birdies on the Par 5s will be the golfers that do well. This course is one of the longer tracks on tour, although it typically does not play as long as it appears on paper we still tend to see that the golfers with good long iron game are the golfers that are the one setting themselves up for birdies.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years Course History
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
With this being the first event of the season, and it being a no-cut event we know that this will be a high variance week. A week that if you're playing a lot you should plan for the variance.
This is a week where we will get more random results from golfer, thus are results will be more random as well.
Weather:
Weather is only a variable (currently) on Thursday. With this being a limited field event, and a no-cut event we do not really need to worry about the weather.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets Round 1:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Patrick Cantlay +135 over Justin Thomas - DraftKings
Corey Conners +112 over Hideki - Betonline
Jake Knapp +140 over Jhonattan Vegas - Pinnacle
Matt Fitzpatrick +110 over Taylor Pendrith - DraftKings
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical
thresholds used to determine winners.
My Outright Bets:
Xander 6/1
Collin Morikawa 11/1
Corey Conners 28/1
Sam Burns 24/1
Brian Harman 48/1
Taylor Pendrith 51/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag.
My Takeaways:
I do agree with the data here Xander is the one golfer I feel the need to go out of my way to roster. The one concern from him this week is that random terrible result in his last event which was the ZOZO Championship. I do not really care about the bad result as it was after the Tour Championship, and is just an event that a golfer like Xander shows up to hoping to play well but does not really care if he doesn't.
THE YEAR OF XANDER STARTS THIS WEEK! (Every year is the year of Xander. This is a good time to say thank to Xander for making me look good over his past 56 made cuts, and giving us 2 Major Victories last year. Good stuff)
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
My Takeaways:
Again I fully agree with the data here, after Xander we should be trying to get 2 out of these three golfers into our builds. Once we have done that we go and get all 3 golfers into our builds. They should all gives us a very high floor given their course history and course fit. We just need one of the 3 to win.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
My Takeaways:
The only 2 golfers I disagree with here is Aberg, and Finau. Both could go out and have a good week and it would not be shocking at all but they are priced that way, and I just do not think they have as much safety or chance of upside as the top 4 golfers or Sam Burns, Corey Conner and Max Greyserman.
Obviously the data likes Sam Burns and Corey Conners a lot this week, and that is due to their good "form". (Form from months ago so it doesn't really matter). They have both played this event multiple times, but both do need to drastically do better, and I think that they will.
Greyserman would be an elite option if this event was taking place a few months ago during his good golf stretch. The question with him is whether or not that was just a good stretch of golfer that he was playing or if he is actually ready to take the next step.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
My Takeaways:
I think that JT is a fade for me this week especially at his ownership this week. He is someone that needs to prove it to me first before I trust him.
I am fine with Scott, and Thompson as play, but Taylor Pendrith is a golfer that I like a little bit more than the data. He was in great form prior to the break, and is a top 5 stat fit in the field. Heck I am looking at this and like this some much I am going to go make him an outright bet as well.
Now this is a week in which we know to do Studs and Duds. Below are my favorite sub 7K plays that we can pair with the top end golfers. These are golfers that I believe can go out and score and at the very least outscore where they are priced.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Xander, Sungjae, Moriakwa, Cantlay, Vegas, Yu, Nico
GPP: Burns, Greyserman
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Optimal Build: From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
PROJECTED OWNERSHIP / OWNERSHIP LEVERAGE
From the NineToFive Ownership Leverage Page.
I am surpised that JT is coming in as over-owned as the highest projected owned player this week at 30%. To me that feels like an easy fade. JT has to finish top 5 to pay off that ownership, and compared to the other golfers in his ownership range I think that he is the list likely amongst them.
I also have the same thoughts for the other JT, or actual JT, JT Poston. Poston needs to finish top 15 to pay off his current projected ownership, although I could see him doing that, we have better options this week.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK AND LET'S HAVE A GOOD YEAR!