Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the Open Championship
Quick Updates Made to the Website for Golf: Added in Head to Head Betting Picks Tool, this can be found under the betting tool. This will be for both the tournament and the round. This will compare the specific book, against the average sportsbook odds from several different sources to see if we are gaining an edge on a bet. Another way we can gain an edge is by comparing the NineToFive Odds against the Book odds. Below is an example using the tournament only market. (I will have a video breaking down how to use this tool at some point)
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B)
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5)
Total Driving (TD)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat
Bogey Avoidance (BA)
Ball Striking (SGT2G)
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Event History Last 4 Years (I do not believe there is a great comp course for us to use this week, which is one thing that I like about the tournament. This will be a unique course and event for us to enjoy.)
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
It is way to easy to make a good build this week thus it will be a week in which I am attacking.
Weather:
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Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
Xander Schauffele 14/1
Tyrrell Hatton 28/1
Collin Morikawa 16/1
Corey Conners 70/1
Rory 8/1
Tony Finau 50/1
Tommy Fleetwood 25/1
Barracuda Championship:
Patrick Rodgers 28/1 (PointsBet)
Mac Meissner 35/1 (BetMGM)
Rico Hoey 40/1
Cham Kim 30/1 (BetMGM)
Taylor Pendrith 25/1 (BetMGM)
Troy Merritt 100/1 (PointsBet)
Sam Stevens 25/1
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
I do expect Rory to be over the US Open choke jump, and be fully mentally prepared to win this week, if not more than normal. We know that for Rory these days the difference for him having a great week where he is in contention or a bad week where he finishes top 40(ish) is just how much he is mentally geared up to play. Based off of all his press answers it sounds like he will be good to go this week thus we should treat him as the data is presenting him.
Xander Schauffele is once again coming in checking all the boxes as he ranks top 10 or better in all the key metrics that we look at. Its simple we play Xander, we bet on Xander.
Now Tyrrell Hatton is difficult to rank which goes for all LIV golfers in the field, that is just the world that we live in during the majors. The reason why I like Hatton is that he is one of the few golfers on LIV where his form their has carried over for success at the majors. He has made 3 straight cuts with a top 10 finish mixed in. He has played great at this tournament finishing top 20 in 3 out of the past 4 Open Championships. I do feel however that Hatton is a little bit too high priced, at the same time I think he is a safe play and can be used in fair and balanced builds.
Tommy Fleetwood is basically the same play to me as is Hatton except that we have more data on Fleetwood. Both golfers should be safe plays, and if the pieces fall in the right place I do think they can win this week, at the very least if they are on their A game I do expect them to be in the mix to win during this tournament.
Aaron Rai and Corey Conners would not be priced this way had the pricing came out on them prior to the conclusion of the Scottish Open last week as they both ended up finishing in the top 10 (as expected). This is creating some great value for us this week. Their pricing really points on how easy it is to make a good build on paper.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
The biggest reason why I am knocking Scottie this week is due to his price. Had he played last week and had another top 5 finish I would be comfortable, but the travel is a lot to ask, and he has had a big break, and it feels a little too risky to have him as a core play this week.
Collin Morikawa I could easily make a core play this week, and if you're going with more fair and balanced builds I would be fine treating him as such. The slight concern is his poor finishes the last two Open Championships, but I would argue this is the best Morikawa has looked on paper heading into a major ever in his career, and that is a saying a lot for a two time major winner.
Cameron Smith I do think is a cheaper elite play that we can count on to make the cut and potentially finish top 10. Shane Lowry, Brian Harman, and Adam Scott are all plays that I feel are also cheap plays that should make the cut and also provide upside.
Tony Finau is basically the same play on paper as Collin Morikawa just slightly worse. Finau is a great stat fit, he has been in great form, and has been trending towards a win.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
This range we are getting all of our great GPP plays. We know that when Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, and Sungjae Im are on their game that can give us a top 10 finish. The issue is that they all have random events where their game falls off. This makes them a little bit too risky.
I don't know really what to do with Oosty (like most LIV golfers) but he has been playing better on LIV lately, and this is a course that he should be a good fit form.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
I am literally knocking Aberg because he is playing with Bryson that is really it, other than that he is a great play. At the US Open both Hovland and Homa missed the cut. Pavon on Sunday had his worst round of the tournament, Aberg was in first before being paired with Bryson, and then ending up shooting 73, and 73. Tommy Fleetwood was paired with Bryson in round 1 and round two at the PGA where Tommy shot his worst round of the week shooting an opening round 72. Bhatia was also paired with this group and missed the cut. At the Masters Gary Woodland almost finished dead last, and Thorbjorn Olesen had a good opening round but then shot a 79 in round 2. (I see a trend)
Hovland could pop but I do worry he is too high priced. Davis Thompson and Si Woo Kim are looking like strong made cut candidates.
Lower Exposure
High priced golfers that I will be underweight on from the field but still want exposure to, and more GPP only plays.
Takeaways:
If you're playing Socttie Scheffler this week I do think that Ben Griffin and Matthew Jordan give you a good chance at a made cut.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + Lowry, Smith, Harman, Scott, Finau
GPP: Young, Im, Theegala, Oosty, Hovland
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
My worry with Im is that he will be too high owned, at only 11% he is already coming in as a potential fade.
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