Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
Betting Units Profit in 2025: 106.3
Weeks Cashed in DFS: 6/10 = 60% (2 pushes)
H2H Bets: 59/87 | 21
3-Ball: 71/150 | 30.9
FRL: 8/66 | 57.1
Outrights: 1/76 | -26
Prop Sites: 56/90 | 26.43
2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow:
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
This week is much better on paper, this is a week in which I expect 5/6 to be the norm. The common theme that I have having this week is that I am having a little bit of trouble closing out builds, always closing them with plays that are only decent options, so I still think that 6/6 will be difficult to get to.
Outright betting wise we are getting decent numbers on good golfers not named Scottie and Rory.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Effective Birdie To Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 1 - Combination Stat for Bogey Avoidance and Birdie to Bogey Ratio.
Strokes Gained Putting (SG PUTT) Key Stat 2
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Around the Green (SGARG) Key Stat 4
Driving Distance (DD) Key Stat 5
One of the common themes among golfers that have won this event have been golfers that have putted well, more so than other events on average. We also see that Strokes Gained Around the Green tends to pop up more here on average more than most events, and I think that is due to the length of the course. I think that is why we also see Total Driving pop, and we see Driving Distance popped as well. This is a harder scoring track so golfers that do not make mistakes will be the good golf plays.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
The biggest concern would be the Thursday round where there is a chance of a delay. This is something we can't plan for but we might see a golfer get caught in a weather delay that was rolling cool off after the delay. Other than that the weather does not seem to be too bad. 15mph or lower winds doesn't change too much in terms of who we would be targeting.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
IÂ will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Rory 20/1
Min Woo Lee 45/1
Ben Griffin 60/1
Taylor Moore 60/1
Lee Hodges 80/1
Wyndham Clark 45/1
Aaron Rai 50/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Lee Hodges +180
Nico Echavarria +246
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Rory McCIlroy beating Scottie +120
Taylor Pendrith beating Joe Highsmith -118
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting SheetÂ
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1Â = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
We have two traditional good outright bets, one being Scottie Scheffler which is not a surprise, the other being J.J. Spaun is a little bit shocking.
Bets:
Aaron Rai: 28/1 Most Books
JJ Spaun: 35/1 FD (Bovada 40/1)
Scottie Scheffler: 4/1 Most Books
Lee Hodges 110/ FD (165/1 Betonline)
Jacob Bridgeman 45/1 Most Books
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Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
No shock at all that Scottie is a Core Play this week. The worry with Scottie is he is not a lock to hit value at this price like he seemingly was last year when he was getting priced this week. Scottie is safe, and has upside (obviously) if we can fit him into our builds we should do so, but I do think it is difficult to fit him into our builds.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
We have a lot of High Exposure plays this week compared to the last few weeks, and that is where this week is a little bit more appealing.
The only concern with Rory is that he has not played this course, and also he went and got a prep round in at Augusta on Monday instead of here. I think there is a good chance that Rory plays well but I think he might be looking ahead a little bit too much to really contend. If he only finishes top 15 he will not pay off that price tag.
JJ Spaun and Aaron Rai are both golfers I am going out of my way to target this week. I like getting to them because they both should be extremely safe, and they both should provide upside. The concern I have is that Spaun has yet to finish better than 36th in two starts here. Still he is a good enough play across the board.
Jacob Bridgeman is not the best stat fit, which is the concern with him this week, but that is also why we are getting him this cheap. Bridgeman has finished top 3 in two out of his last three events. He also finished 21st here last year.
Joe Highsmith is basically the same paly as Bridgeman just with a missed cut recently. His missed cut was directly after his win so I am willing to write that off.
I'd loved Jason Day and Min Woo Lee if they were priced a little cheaper.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
I actually agree with all these golfers being Mid Exposure plays, as they all have a slight flaw, but giving their prices they are all golfers we can still target somewhat.
I have been getting to Victor Perez a little bit more than a Mid Exposure play simply because of his price. He has made 3 straight cuts, he is a top 20 stat fit, and finished top 20 at this event last year. He allows me to get to Rai and Spaun.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.
I like Stephan Jaeger slightly more than a Low Exposure play simply due to his price and his extremely good course history.
I also like Taylor Moore, and Alex Smalley as great GPP plays. I think they have a good shot to finish at least top 20. Their results last week were both bad but we could write that off to them not having it in bad weather conditions.
I also like Davis Riley a little bit more than this as well, 3 straight made cuts at this event all being top 30 or better finishes. He has made 4 straight cuts with two top 10 finishes. The issue is he is a bad Specialist and bad Stat Fit which does explain this cheap price tag coming in off of a good week. Still the price is soft and he is easy to get to.
Lee Hodges is one of the best stat fits in the field, and is in the 5th best recent form in the field. He also is a top 20 Specialist. Had has one missed cut and one made cut at this event but which is is one flaw data wise. This should be a great value option for us. The biggest issue with him however is he is coming into this event off of an injury. I would imagine that is why he is price this cheap this week. So there is some risk, he will be a great GPP play, might be a little risky for cash though.
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Player Pool
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
*Jeremy Paul, and Ricky Castillo are to Lower Exposure options I will be getting to as well.
Cash
Scottie, Rai, Spaun, Bridgeman
GPP
Smalley, Moore
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Sample Lineup
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
You see my issue with this week with the build above. I like the first 5 golfers a decent amount, closing it out with Schmid is fine, but I wish we were able to close out our builds with safer clicks. That is just the week we have.
Optimal GPP Lineups (Based on Highest Upside):
From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
This is a great GPP build, the issue is that Smalley, Griffin, and Moore are coming in off of missed cuts.
Projected Ownership / Ownership Leverage
Projected ownership for that weeks golf tournament, Tag to call out if they are over-valued or under-valued. What position they are being valued at given their ownership at their price.
This is a week in which we are not getting any golfers that are over-valued as things sit right now, we however are getting some good leverage spots. It seems like everyone is getting to Rai over Spaun which creates a good edge for us this week even if we play both of them. Joe High Smith is also in a good spot as well, and I believe he is this low owned because people are getting to Jacob Bridgeman, Max Greyserman, Thomas Detry, and Alex Smalley more.
Alright, that is all for the week, hope you enjoyed the write-up. If you're a NineToFive Member I will see you in the Discord. If you're not a NineToFive Member, think about becoming one! The NineToFive Membership is only $10 a month, which will give you access to all the tools available on the site.