Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections.
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Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 1
Par 4 Scoring (Par4) Key Stat 2
Strokes Gained Putting (SG P) Key Stat 3
Ball Striking (BS) Key Sat 4
Winners and golfers that have finished in the top 10, 20, 40 and goflers that made the cut all were better in Birdie to Bogey Ration, Par 4 Scoring, and Strokes Gained Putting. This is pretty clear, but from there the next key stats really depend on how the course was playing that year. Generally though golfers that have a good iron game, and are good with Total Driving tend to play better, thus we are looking at Ball Striking as that stat combines both those stats.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years Course History
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Although I do think the top 4 plays this week are obvious this is still the second event of the PGA Tour season, some of the golfers that we are going to be on this week played last week, those are the golfers that we want to be on the most as they should present more predictability having one start. But most of the golfers in the field are going to be golfers that we have not seen play competitive golf in a long time. This will create more variance.
In the past this event has been somewhat predictable in terms of which golfers would do well, but tougher to predict which "good" golfs play might struggle.
On top of that the weather this week could led to it being a week that is tougher to predict.
Weather:
The weather that we have this week is considered "Fair" weather, this is when the weather starts to play a difference in scoring, not by much but enough to factor it in.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
The first picture I posted I accidentally sorted by model rank instead of round rank like I did in my Round 1 bets video. This is the updated round 1 frl bets filtered for Early Tee Times.
3 Ball Bets Round 1:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Harris English beating Tom hoge -105 Bet MGM
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical
thresholds used to determine winners.
My Outright Bets:
Corey Conners 14/1
Russell Henley 19/1
Keegan Bradley 26/1
Taylor Pendrith 36/1
Harry Hall 50/1
Seamus Power 82/1
Hun An 27/1
Ben Griffin 48/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag.
My Takeaways:
I 100% agree with the data, that Corey Conners and Russell Henley are Core Plays. Both players have not missed a cut here in the past 4 years, both golfers have at least two top 15 or better finishes, both are elite stat fit, that are in great form, and both are golfers that tend to play well at tracks like this.
They both played last week as well which naturally gives them a bump over golfers that did not.
This is the simple part this week. Player these two. I like them both as outright bets, or simply top 10 bets.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
My Takeaways:
I agree with the data here as well. Hideki coming in off of a win should be valued slightly less than Conners and Henley, who both have better course history anyways.
From there I honestly can't argue any of the callouts, I think they are all great options. Ben Griffin, and Harry Hall are elite options especially in lineups where you might be doing studs and duds. I could see them both winning this week as well.
Patrick Rodgers, and Nicolas Echavarria are not only great play on paper but they are at great prices making them easy to fit into our builds.
Now to be clear I like Hall over Clanton and Griffin simply because Hall made a start in Hawaii last week. Same goes for Nico over Rodgers.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
My Takeaways:
So again on paper we are getting a lot of good plays, but again I will be going with the golfers that we saw last week first.
Taylor Pendrith is the first play that I disagree with here, I would value him more as a High Exposure golfer. The reason why he is being knocked is because he has only made two cuts here in the past 4 years with one of those being a missed cut. HIs missed cut was 3 years ago. He is a much different golf compared to 3 years ago. His other finish here was a top 10 finish. I love Pendrith this week.
From there I could easily see Keegan, or Macintyre winning this week. They need to be in the mix.
Austin Eckroat and Kurt Kitayama are a bit too high priced but still are solid options.
Rico Hoey is a great GPP play, and heck I'd considered him a great longshot bet as well if I were trying to get some action in on a golfer with longer odds. Hoey WD from his last scheduled events citing an injury, but prior to that he had been in elite form making 13 straight cuts while consistently giving himself chances to win. I could see that being the case again this week.
Mackenzie Hughes and Michael Kim are both golfers that have being playing recently, and are both golfer that I would not be shocked to see having a good week.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
My Takeaways:
I again agree with these golfers all being golfers that we should try to get exposure to but are all a bit too risky.
I think that Chris Kirk, and Poston are solid "Shoulder Shrug" options, whereas Daniel Berger I was toying around with as an outright bet. We saw him somewhat find his old game during the fall swing, and if we are back to getting peak Daniel Berger (before his injury) then this is an elite value.
Joe Highsmith, Sam Stevens, Vince Whaley, and Mac Meissner area all golfers that had good fall swings but was that them just getting hot for a short period of time or a sign of things to come. We will see this week.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Henley, Conners, Hall, Nico, Rodgers, Griffin, Keegan
GPP: Berger, Hoey, Yuta, Clanton, Thompson, Hun An
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
What we will see is that the Lineup Builder likes to go with more of a fair and balanced build whereas as I really want to lock in Conners, and Henley get that on paper really good finishes, and then figure it out from there.
Optimal Build: From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
PROJECTED OWNERSHIP / OWNERSHIP LEVERAGE
From the NineToFive Ownership Leverage Page.
I have a tough time getting behind Tom Kim at his ownership when you can get Keegan or Hun An at a lower price and projected ownership.
Hideki should not be the highest owned golfer this week and that is something I would think would get corrected.
Power seems to be the most under appreciated asset this week, and even I showed that earlier with the First Look Build. I could've went with him instead of Stevens, I view them as about the same, maybe I switch in Stevens.
LETS HAVE ANOTHER GOOD WEEK THIS WEEK, GOOD LUCK!
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