The 2025 RBC Heritage + Corales Championship: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

Betting Units Profit in 2025: 73.43

Weeks Cashed in DFS: 6/11 = 54% (4pushes)

H2H Bets: 70/105 | 20

3-Ball: 79/185 | 18.9

FRL: 8/80| 44.1

Outrights: 1/91 | -44

Prop Sites: 65/108 | 34.43

2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: GREEN

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

I actually like the lineup process a decent amount this week. Typically speaking we are going to do studs and duds in a no-cut event, and that is what we have ahead of ourselves this week as well. After the Scottie the studs do not seem as safe as I would like in terms of for sure paying off their price tag, and we have a lot of studs that are in play, but where I think the edge is this week is in the values that we will be on.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie To Bogey Ratio (2B) Key Stat 1

• Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 2

• Good Drive % (GD %) Key Stat 3

• Par 4 Scoring (Par 4 Scoring) Key Stat 4

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 5

  
  

This course is all about smart and boring golfers, those are the golfers that tend to play well.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

• Last 4 years course history.

  
  

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Weather does not seem to be an issue.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Russell Henley - 30/1

• Scottie Scheffler 12/1

• Patrick Cantlay - 25/1

• Justin Thomas - 25/1

• Corey Conners - 30/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• Sepp Straka

• Xander Schauffele

• Bud Cauley

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Jason Day beating Aaron Rai +105 - BetMGM

• Jordan Spieth beating Hovland +100 - DraftKings

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

I will be getting to Xander as well for an outright, but I feel pretty good ending up on any of these outright bets.

Bets:

• Scottie 4/1

• Collin Morikawa 11/1

• Xander Schauffele 16/1 - Betonline

• Russell Henley 25/1

• Corey Conners 26//1 - Betonline

• Daniel Berger 50/1

• Bud Cauley 80/1 FanDuel

Bets I also like:

• Daniel Berger top 20 2/1

• Bud Cauley top 20 2/1

• Denny McCarthy top 20 2/1

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

I agree with this approach, both of these golfers are both safe and provide the upside we need to have a good week. The nice part about this week is that they are easy to fit into builds together.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

I like JT this week but I do see him more as a GPP only play. He has the upside to go out and win this week. It would not be shocking to see him have a good week, I just do not want to get to him as an High Exposure play. Rather if I am paying up this much I'd rather bet on Xander being back, and get to him instead.

Coreys, Berger, and McCarthy I really like, and they are all priced correctly.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

I do fully expect Henley to bounce back this week. Missing the cut because of a terrible round 1, and a bogey on 18 is something that could reward of this week. As now he'll be a little bit lower-owned, and he is lower priced than he would have been had he finished top 20 or so.

Sungjae Im and JT are very similar plays to me, both GPP only plays, both have extreme upside, both could win and it would not be shocking. I actually think pricing wise Sungjae is the way to go over JT both hold their risk though.

Aberg is also a GPP only play, just too high-priced. I mean this is a hot take, but if you compare Aberg to Glover they are essentially the same golfer this year on paper, just saying... (Yes Aberg is a much better golfer, just calling out the randomness both golfers have had this year)

Data Tag: Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.

These plays are all fine, they are all GPP plays. The plays I want to call out are the sub 7K options that I like.

Yea Glover with ok course history and a lot of top 10 finishes recently on the PGA Tour is certainly in play. Ryan Gerard is a golfer that has not made a start here but is a great stat fit, and has made 4 straight cuts including two top 10 finishes. Both could hold great upside.

Eric Cole finished 33rd at this event last year, and if we get that out of him this week that would be great. Cole has 3 straight made cuts of top 30 or better results.

Ryo Hisatsune has two top 5 finishes over his past 3 starts, and that makes him an interesting click. Sami Valimaki also has good form making 6 straight cuts with a 12th, and 5th place finishes recently. Again risky but I like the upside.

Matt Kuchar seems to be the easy click. Makes getting to Scottie easy. He has 3 top 20 or better finishes at this plotters course, and his form is not terrible. I think he will finish in the top 50% in the field.

Player Pool

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)

CASH AND GPP PLAYS:

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash

• Scottie, Moriakwa, McCarthy, Kuchar, Gerard, Cole, Valimaki, Hisatsune

GPP

• JT, Jordan, Aberg, Glover

Sample Lineup

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

We have an interesting dynamic with the Studs and Duds builds this week, as we have a number of golfers that could produce some high-end results at cheap costs. The first lineup I like because it allows me to get to Bud Cauley, who I really like this week, and I am still able to play Kuchar, Morikawa, and Scottie without sacrificing too much. Valimaki and Hisatsune alone are risky plays, but in a way, I think when we pair them together, hoping for one of them to score, we somewhat eliminate that risk because if one of them finishes top 15, that should be enough value assuming Scottie and Morikawa do what we need them to do.

Now the second lineup I like as well, it is still studs and duds somewhat but I am able to get up to Gerard who I do view as the best sub 7K play this week. We get to Henley and Berger who both hold upside as well.

Optimal GPP Lineups (Based on Highest Upside):

From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder

I like most of the lineups that the optimizer is giving us this week. This one above is solid. I am not on Harman in 20 entry max contests, but he isn't a horrible click. I do view Aaron Rai as a GPP only play.

Projected Ownership / Ownership Leverage

Projected ownership for that weeks golf tournament, Tag to call out if they are over-valued or under-valued. What position they are being valued at given their ownership at their price.

Scottie is starting to get into the overvalued range this week, but nothing ownership wise is too crazy this week.

Corales Puntacana Championship

FRL Bets

Alex Smalley - 33/1

Harry Hall - 35/1

Keith Mitchell - 28/1

Henrick Norlander - 55/1

Hayden Springer - 55/1

Rico Hoey - 40/1

Outright Bets:

Scottie is starting to get into the overvalued range this week, but nothing ownership wise is too crazy this week.

Chan Kim - 28/1

Keith Mitchell - 14/1

Harry Hall - 20/1

Alex Smalley - 18/1

Henrik Norlander - 45/1

Hayden Springer - 45/1

--- Half Unit Bets ---

Steven Fisk - 45/1

Alejandro Tosti - 35/1

Ricky Castillo - 40/1 (60/1 Betonline)