Welcome to our comprehensive preview of the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld 2025! In this video, we dive deep into:
Core Plays: Discover the must-have golfers for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. We analyze their form, course history, and statistical advantages to help you build a winning team.
Outright Bets: Looking to make some money on the outright winner? We discuss the top contenders and dark horses, providing insights into their odds and potential to take home the trophy.
First Look Build: Get a head start with our initial lineup construction. We'll walk you through our thought process, sharing strategies and tips on how to optimize your PGA DFS lineup for this unique course.
Whether you're a seasoned DFS player or new to the game, this video is packed with expert analysis and actionable advice to help you succeed in the Mexico Open. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit that notification bell for more PGA DFS content throughout the season!
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
Betting Units Profit in 2025: 26.5
Weeks Cashed in DFS: 4/6 = 67% (1 push)
H2H Bets Record: 40/55 20 Units Profit
3-Ball / 2-Ball Bets: 58/107 (12 ties) 31 Units Profit
FRL / Low Round (Based off of events): 5/35 = -5 Units Profit
Outright Winners: 0/40 = -40 Units Profit
PrizePicks / Underdog Bets: 34/44 - *3 Ties = 20 Units Profit.
2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 1
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2
Par 5 (Par 5) Scoring Key Stat 3
Greens in Regulation (GIR) Key Stat 4
Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 5
This course has proven to be a perfect spot for golfers that are both long and accurate off the tee, and are golfers that are peppering the green. With bad weather projected for the first two rounds we could see Total Driving, and Ball Striking play a little bit more pivotal. The Par 5s can be demanding here, so golfers will need to score on those holes to gain an edge on the field.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 3 years course history.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
This is a very interesting week, I think a lot of the favorites are all golfers we need to be considering for betting purposes and for DFS purposes. They are all golfers that could and at the very least should be in contention to win on Sunday. This field is kind of stacked with really good options but it does lack great options. Akshay Bhatia is the only golfer that is checking all the boxes this week, as a result this feels like it could be a more hit or miss week. That being said I have around 9 golfers that I like outright wise, and I feel like the DFS process is somewhat straight forward.
My issue with DFS builds this week is on paper it really does not matter the golfer(s) that I close out my builds with as they are all great options but with a slight flaw. The difference in having a good week or bad week could be landing on for example Patrick Rodgers who top 5s, as opposed to Aaron Rai who has a random bad week. That is really the only potential issue this week. Other than wind....
Weather:
At the Farmers we saw the weather pick up on Friday when it wasn't projected to, now this Right now the weather is projecting to be relatively clam, and no posing any advantages or disadvantages. When I looked on Monday it appeared that Thursday and Friday would be big advantages at least for golfers with AM tee times. I still think we will want to target AM golfers for at least RD1 showdown and potentially RD2 showdown but we will deal with that when it comes.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Harry Hall 40/1 All Books
Kurt Kityama 35 DK
Taylor Moore 40/1 All Books
Ryan Fox 66/1 BetMGM
Alex Smalley 50 All Books
Kevin Yu 50/1 All Books
CT Pan 60 FanDuel
Going pretty heavy targeting the early AM RD1 tee times to attempt hit a FRL.
3 Ball Bets Round 1:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
*KEEPING THE 3-BALL UPDATE FROM LAST WEEK POSTED BELOW.
Please note I pushed an update for the 3-Ball Bets that I will touch on below.
You see the page is still setup the same but with one change, and that is with the "Edge" this is the percent edge that we have on the Matchup Odds compared to the NineToFive Odds. But simply because a bet has a positive Edge does not make it automatically a good bet. How I will use the tool is set the Matchup Odds to at least 30% like pictured below. Then to the same for the "Edge %" drop down, but change this to at least 0.01.
Now the picture below will be what are ultimately "good" bets. The higher the matchup odds the more likely the bet is to hit. So for me I think I will just be rolling with Scottie, Zalatoris, Henley, Straka, and Bhatia to win their groups.
This update is to ensure has a more long-term profitable approach.
Bets with Decimal Odds for Round 1
Matteo Manassero 2.97
Jackson Suber 2.89
Sam Ryder 3.05
Harry Hall 3.19
Trey Mullinax 3.2
Adam Svennson 3.12
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Tournament Matchup Bets
Jesper Svennson beating Patrick Fishburn -105 DK
Harry Hall beating Kevin Yu -120 DK
Round 1 Matchup Bets
Ryan Fox beating Greyson Sigg -105 DK
Aaron Rai beating Patrick Rodgers -105 DK
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical
thresholds used to determine winners.
Sam Stevens is the only "Good" outright bet that we have. From there is you click on the "Possible Outrights" I like all of those options, and I don't mind to of the long-shot options in Charley Hoffman and Adam Svennson. But I don't feel the need to get to longer odds bets. We have so many good options this week that if they show up they should win. I'd really dial into those picks.
This tournament has actually been somewhat predictable with the top 2 golfers winning the first two years, and last year we had two random golfers on top of the leaderboard but after that there was a ton of predictable good finishes. That's how I am attacking, chasing the predictable good finishing, and hope the putts break our way.
My Outright Bets: (Beau Hossler and Kevin Roy are fomo bets)
Harry Hall - 35/1 Bovada
Stephan Jaeger - 25/1 Most Books
Akshay Bhatia - 14/1 Most Book
Alex Smalley - Alex SMalley 40/1 FanDuel
CT Pan - 60/1 Bovada
Ryan Gerard - 80/1 PointsBet / FanDuel
Kevin Roy - 90/1 Bovada
Sam Stevens - 28/1 Bovada
Beau Hossler - 40/1 Bovada
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
My Takeaways:
Akshay Bhatia is the only golfer that is considered a Core Play by the data, and I would agree, although he could be a better stat fit, he has played on tougher tracks compared to some of the golfers in the field recently. He ranks out as the best Couse Specialist as well. Really he is checking all the boxes, and we should be able to fit him into our builds. Although for cash/main builds it has felt like I am forcing him into builds rather than liking my builds with him in it naturally.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
My Takeaways:
I won't be getting to Kitayama that much in DFS as some of the other options we have but I get what the data sees. I just worry about his upside at this price. He is someone that had a great fall swing with multiple top 10 finishes, but during the 2025 season has went 49th, MC, 58th, and 37th. Not terrible results but I would like to see a better finish this season at a guy at this price tag.
Harry Hall and Stephan Jaeger would both be Core Plays had it not been for their recent missed cuts. Both of which came on course where they weren't the best Specialists, now we get them back on a track that clearly suits their game both in Course History and Specialist data.
All three of these golfers are basically the same play, so why not just go with the cheaper plays in Jaeger and Hall instead of Kitayama.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
My Takeaways:
Patrick Rodgers with a random pop off week last week kind of sucks because now he is more expensive than he would have been had he just finished top 20(ish). He has great course history and is a great stat fit. He should be a good option this week.
Beau Hossler is playing some of the better golf in the field with 9 straight made cuts in a row, and a few top 15 finishes over his past 7 starts. He also has a top 10 at this event. The one concern is his stat fit, but he is a good Specialist.
CT Pan I really like this week, and he is the first golfer that felt like he was undervalued especially compared to other golfers around him. As a result I see him more as an High Exposure play but the biggest issue that we have with Pan is that we have not seen much of him this season. Only two starts, both decent starts, but would have liked one more.
Nicolai Horgaard I personally see as more of "Shoulder Shrug" play for me this week. Meaning happy to get to him if I have to but also not going out of my way to do so.
Kevin Roy would be a great play this week had it not been for his WD in his last event. A lot of golfers WD from that event sporting a sickness, and I am assuming that is what occurred with him there as well. If that is the case, and he isn't injured then this price we are getting for him this week is great. Prior to that WD he had made 2 starts this season finishing 19th, and 45th. Prior to those two starts a 12th, MC, 8th, and MC. So we maybe seeing more consistently come with his upside this year. His worst metric is his Specialist Rank where he ranks 39th, so not terrible. He ranks top 10 or better in TD, BS, Par 5 Scoring, and BOB this week. This is a play that could just blowup and ruin some builds but that is the week we have, and I think he is just the correct click at this price tag both in DFS and Outright wise.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
My Takeaways:
My biggest problem this week is that literally all of the "Low Exposure" golfers I really like this week, and I can't really find a reason given their prices to be on one over the other. They are all pretty great plays as mostly good prices.
I will say it has felt to me that Trey Mullinax has been a golfer that is ready to pop off for a big week, and this would be a great course for him to do that at where he has a top 24 finish, and where he ranks out as a top 3 stat fit. IT would not be shocking to see that happen.
Alex Smalley has somewhat bad course history but he also has a top 10 finish here. He has a recent missed cut on the PGA Tour but also 3 of his last 4 events have been top 25 or better finishes. Plus he is one of the better stat fits. He is a great GPP play.
Sam Stevens and Taylor Moore are both getting slightly knocked for their missed cuts at this event but both could easily up on in contention on Sunday. Simply having the course experience is pretty big as well.
Greyson Sigg, and Jake Knap are both golfers I see making the cut.
Ryan Gerard I am a little bit shocked the data does not like more, because I like him a lot I have him as an outright bet, and a golfer that I want to be going out of my way to target. He finished 33rd at this event two years ago. He is a top 10 stat fit, and he has made 4 straight cuts in a row with two of those being top 15 finishes. On top of that he ranks out 13th on these Paspallum Greens. DONT LET ME DOWN GERARD!
A worse version of Gerard as a play is Vincent Norman who has also made 4 straight cuts, but none of them have been great finishes.
Some sub 7K plays I like are: Will Gordon, Nate Lashley, Jeremy Paul, and Ben Kohles.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Bhatia, Pan, Roy, Gerard
GPP: Kitayam, SMalley, Moore, Rai, Yu (I mean basically the whole 9K and up range are good upside plays)
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
I like both builds up above but don't love either. That is just the week that we have.
I am not the biggest fan of the Otpimal build. I see it more as a good GPP build.
Optimal Build: From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
PROJECTED OWNERSHIP / OWNERSHIP LEVERAGE
From the NineToFive Ownership Leverage Page.
Last week I didn't think we needed to really care about the ownership and that take was correct, that is how I feel about this week as well. That being said last said the NineToFive data really nailed the golfers to stay away from ownership wise, and which golfers to get more of as well.
This week I mentioned we have a lot of golfers that should be valued about the same, so when I see Aaron Rai, Harry Hall, and Beau Hossler all lower owned than Patrick Rodgers, and Stephan Jaeger, I do like the idea of getting to the slightly lowed valued golfers.
Alright, that is all for the week, hope you enjoyed the write-up. If you're a NineToFive Member I will see you in the Discord. If you're not a NineToFive Member, think about becoming one! If you're coming from X (Twitter) a like and a retweet is greatly appreciated on the post of this article. (Link back to X: https://x.com/925_Sports/status/1891986076652212489 )
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