The 2025 MASTERS: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 925 Sports
- 3 days ago
- 12 min read
Here is a quick snapshot of the Masters this week:
Cut Line: The Masters employs a 36-hole cut, with the top 50 players and ties advancing to the weekend rounds. This keeps the field competitive yet manageable for the final two days.
Course Length: The course is currently set at 7,555 yards, a par-72 layout. It has been lengthened over the years to adapt to modern play, though its strategic design remains the priority over sheer distance.
Greens: Augusta features bentgrass greens, known for their dramatic slopes and contours. Recent updates include resurfacing of four greens (notably the 16th) following damage from Hurricane Helene in 2024, though they’ve been restored to their original shapes. The greens vary in style—some oceanic with rolls, others stepped or tilted—demanding precision and adaptability.
Green Speeds: Exact speeds aren’t officially published, but they’re famously fast, often estimated at 13 to 15 on the Stimpmeter during tournament week. The SubAir system beneath the greens helps maintain firmness and speed, adjustable daily based on conditions and desired challenge.
Location: Augusta National is located in Augusta, Georgia, USA, a city in the eastern part of the state near the South Carolina border. The private club sits on a 365-acre former nursery site.
Course Designed: The course was co-designed by Bobby Jones, the legendary amateur golfer, and Alister MacKenzie, a renowned architect, opening in 1932. Clifford Roberts, the club’s co-founder, also influenced its evolution, with later modifications by architects like Robert Trent Jones and George Cobb (for the Par-3 Course).
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
Betting Units Profit in 2025: 81.5
Weeks Cashed in DFS: 6/11 = 54% (3 pushes)
H2H Bets: 66/99 | 23
3-Ball: 78/176 | 26.9
FRL: 8/80| 44.1
Outrights: 1/85 | -37
Prop Sites: 56/96 | 24.43
2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: GREEN
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
We have some extremely soft pricing this week in PGA DFS which leads to us getting a lot of great value options. Making good lineups is extremely easy to do this week. (Very refreshing)
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie To Bogey Ratio (E2B) Key Stat 1
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 2
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Around the Green (SGT2G) Key Stat 4
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 5
The best part about Augusta is that it is a complete course challenging golfers in all aspects of their game, the golfers that are on their game this week will be the golfers that play well. Now Augusta is unique because it will penalize great shots if those great shots are hit in a slightly wrong spot, (I still get haunted by Sungjae Im missing his spot on a hole by a foot where he then ended up putting that shot in the water, and then his next shot in the water) so targeting golfers that have course history more so good course history will be another key thing to look at.
Basically everything that we typically look at for predictability matters even more this week.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
The rain could make things interesting this week. We have seen two tournaments already this year lose their identity due to heavy rain coming in, which led to the greens being much more receptive, ultimately leading to easier scoring. Now, Augusta can control their greens, but still, I think the rain could end up making the course play a bit easier as a whole. My overall takeaway is that maybe the winning score will be closer to -13.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
All on FanDuel this week as they are providing the best odds.
Scottie Scheffler 14/1
Russell Henley 55/1
Sepp Straka 65/1
Justin Thomas 33/1
Rory 16/1
Collin Morikawa 28/1
Corey Conners 50/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Scottie Scheffler
Patrick Cantlay
Sepp Straka
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
BetMGM
Collin Moriakwa beating Jon Rahm -110
Patrick Reed beating Sepp Straka +100
Shane Lowry beating Tommy Fleetwood -110
Phil Mickelson beating Dustin Johnson +100
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
I love getting to Russell Henley, and Collin Morikawa this week to me they are easy clicks. This is the first major lately where the picks to win are not simple. Last year we were able to get Xander at great odds, and Bryson was my pick to win the US Open for months prior to that win. Scottie was coming in checking all the boxes, and was the golfer most likely to win. Last year was very easy. This year is yet to be determined, but the trends this season have pointed to more random winners so with that I am willing to chase the upside with golfers like JT, and Cantlay winning who just need a spike week to win.
Bets:
Collin Morikawa - 18/1 Draftkings
Russell Henley - 55/1 Draftkings
Justin Thomas - 25/1 Draftkings
Patrick Cantlay - 40/1 Draftkings
Corey Conners 65/1 Draftkings (Like him at 2/1 to top 20 as well.)
Bets I also like:
Keegan Bradley to top 20 at 3/1
Lucas Glover to make the cut at -170
Denny McCarthy to make the cut at -170
Harris English to make the cut at -170
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
This is a good time to point out that LIV golfers only have their starts on the DP Tour and PGA Tour showing. Either way, including LIV golf stats or not would skew the data in some way. For the most part, I do not see the need to really target any of them too heavily. LIV golfers do tend to finish worse than expected in majors thus far through its existence. Reed, Hatton, Rahm, Bryson, and Niemann are all in play, but I haven't really gone out of my way to target any of them. The one I have been on the most is Patrick Reed as that is because he is the cheaperst. PGA Tour golfers should be easier to project; thus, I will be targeting those golfers rather than taking dart throws with LIV golfers.
From there it is pretty easy to see that Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Russell Henley should be Core Plays. They have all made 19 or more straight cuts on the PGA Tour they all have multiple top 10 finishes recently, and they are all top 5 stat fits this week. The issue is it would be hard to fit those 3 into a build together.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Tommy Fleetwood does become a tougher click after that 81 that he shot on Sunday, but I also believe that we can write that off as a player who was no longer in contention to win, and was looking ahead to the next week, I do though believe that he would be cheaper had the pricing came out on Monday like normal following a bad week for him.
Rory has had his troubles at this event, but in the past he had been pretty hit or miss heading into the Masters. We really haven't seen his game change much from week to week this year, and if that continues he could find himself wearing a Green Jacket on Sunday, I am not on him outright wise because I do not like his odds, but that doesn't mean he can't win, I expect him to be part of the story on Sunday. At this price we need him to finish top 5.
Shane Lowry should be a very safe play on paper, and I really do like him.
I consider Robert Macintyre mainly as a GPP-only option, but I've frequently used him to finalize my lineups this week due to his price. When that happens, I'm comfortable completing my lineups with him. While left-handed golfers might have a slight advantage at Augusta, it doesn't hold much significance for me; it's just a little extra bonus.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Golfers like Aberg, Rahm, Hideki, Woo Lee are all golfers that I worry we can't really predict how they will play this week. Woo Lee is coming in off of a win golfers tend to fall off a little off a win. If we look at Aberg we can easily see that he has missed 2 straight cuts in a row, and is a terrible stat fit. His win is looking more like a random win on paper, and statically. Now I look at it a little differently, he played sick at one event which hurt his stats, he did win, and I think since his win he has not been as geared up to play as he typically would be with this being a major that won't be a worry. Still his price is TERRIBLE this week I really don't get how or why he is priced higher than golfers like Cantlay, Russell Henley and Corey Conners who on paper are better and safer plays.
I really do like Cantlay and Conners this week they should be safe clicks. Lucas Glover is a good value play as well. I think he has a good chance to make the cut at a cheap price.
Keegan Bradley also struggled a bit last week, but he is still a good value, and still made the cut at a tougher course. He has made 13 straight cuts, and at his price we love the fact that he gives us a good chance at a made cut.
Patrick Reed has great course history here, and I don't think that can be ignored at this price.
Sepp Straka I really like. He has made 3 straight cuts here, he is a top 10 stat fit, and top 10 in recent form. Don't burn us again Straka.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.
Bryson did have a 6th place finish last year but we have to remember there were some pretty lucky chip ins he had. Not like they weren't good shots but banking on him making an eagle from a hole out where if that doesn't happen he probably makes par is not something i would recommend. Bulk Bryson figured out that he could not overpower this course. This course is where you do benefit from being long but you also have to control where you miss and that is why he has struggled here in the past, and that is why Rory has as well. Still when he is on him game he is one of the best in the world. He makes for a fine GPP play.
The first event in which Xander really looked like himself was his last event which does make him a tough click. There is really only two ways to look at Xander, either he is back, and if he is back he is the best value by far this week. If didn't sustain an injury earlier this year he would be at least $11,000 this week. If he is not back this week well then I don't see him making his 61st made cut in a row. Xander is the ideal golfer for this course though. If this course was made for any golfer it would be Xander, and that is why he has 3 top 10 finishes at this event.
Justin Thomas is the player I am on the most compared to what the data is suggesting, that is because I know that I am playing him to chase his upside. I view him as a golfer that can win, and I do think he will make the cut. He is a golfer that I keep ending up on price wise as well to close out my builds. (both him and Xander).
Denny McCarthy is my favorite value play. He does have course experience making the cut here last year and finishing 45th. He ranks out top 15 in recent form, and top ranks as a top 15 stat fit. I think he is clearly priced too cheap.
Cameron Smith has not been playing well on LIV relative to how you think he should be playing but then again it is LIV golf and who really cares how a golfer plays on that Tour. What matters for LIV golfers is their results at majors, and Cameron Smith finished 6th at this event last year. He is still worth a slight look. I think the Low Exposure tag for him is perfect.
JJ Spaun I do think makes for a good GPP play.
Another sub 7K play I like is Harris English. I don't expect much out of him but I do think he is a cheap top 40 finish.
Player Pool
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash
Core Plays + Conners, Lowry, Cantlay, Keegan, Mccarthy, Glover
GPP
Cam Smith, Macintyre, Rory, Hatton
Sample Lineup
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
If the weekend at the Valero Texas Open did not occur where Fleetwood and Keegan played terribly I would be all in on this lineup. I still think it is a great lineup but a little bit of caution. Lots of great form, course history, and all great stat fits.
The second lineup I also like, it is a little bit more studs and duds but overall I think it is a safer build.
Optimal GPP Lineups (Based on Highest Upside):
From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
I actually really like this lineup. I do think that Rory is slightly risky in terms of returning value at his price tag but he could also win. After that I love the plays that are popping.
Projected Ownership / Ownership Leverage
Projected ownership for that weeks golf tournament, Tag to call out if they are over-valued or under-valued. What position they are being valued at given their ownership at their price.
The ownership is pretty spread out this week as it should be. The pricing is soft across the board thus no golfer is a must play, instead we have plenty of golfers that are just easy clicks at their prices. I would argue that Cantlay should be higher owned as well as Russell Henley. Those ownerships are both a little bit too low. Henley at his price probably should be one of the highest owned golfers.
Alright, that is all for the week, hope you enjoyed the write-up. If you're a NineToFive Member I will see you in the Discord. If you're not a NineToFive Member, think about becoming one! The NineToFive Membership is only $10 a month, which will give you access to all the tools available on the site.
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