The Genesis Invitational is set to be a thrilling event for PGA DFS players, with a field packed with top-tier talent heading to Torrey Pines South Course in La Jolla, California, due to wildfires affecting the original venue, Riviera Country Club. Here's a quick preview:
Event Details:
Date: February 13-16, 2025
Course: Torrey Pines South Course - Par 72, 7,765 yards, known for its narrow fairways and punishing rough. Golfers who limit their mistakes will be the ones that will play well this week.
Field Size: Limited to 72 players, with a cut after 36 holes to the top 50 and ties.
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
2025 Season Results:
Betting Units Profit in 2025: 20.5
Weeks Cashed in DFS: 3/5 = 75% (1 push)
H2H Bets Record: 37/50
3-Ball / 2-Ball Bets: 52/100 (12 ties)
FRL / Low Round (Based off of events): 5/33 = 0 units profit
Outright Winners: 0/28 = -28 Units
PrizePicks / Underdog Bets: 23/28 - *3 Ties = 14 Units Profit.
2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (Combination Stat - Bogey Avoidance and B2B) Key Stat 1
Strokes Gained Approach Key Stat 2
Par 4 Scoring Key Stat 3
SG Putting Key Stat 4
Strokes Gained Around the Green (SG ARG) Key Stat 5
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years Course History (For the Farmers Insurance Open - for golfers that have not made a start at the Farmers I will be taking a look to see if and how well they played at the 2021 US Open.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I like the lineup process this week in DFS where you can make good builds regardless of where you start. In my Preview video on YouTube I kept saying that this was a no-cut event which was wrong, but the reason is due to the fact that it will play as a no-cut event. The only golfers that won't make the cut are more than likely going to be golfers that we wouldn't have been targeting because they were bad options.
Now you will need to get 6/6 across the cut line but given the pricing that we have this week, with golfers that have recently played this course at cheaper costs that should not be as difficult this week.
Weather:
At the Farmers we saw the weather pick up on Friday when it wasn't projected to, now this week we saw that earlier on Monday the weather was not projected to be a big factor, and now it is at least on Thursday and Friday. As a result I have updated the weather in the Specialist Data from "Good" to "Bad" to meet to projected conditions for Thursday and Friday basically trying to create a higher floor to ensure that we are getting 6/6 across the cut line.
If you're trying to favor golfers that are good bad weather players that also rank out well in round 1 maybe for round 1 bets or showdown picks the picture below shows the custom model with me selecting "RD1 Showdown Rank" and "Weather - Bad Last 5 Starts"
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Henley - 45/1
Straka: 40/1
Pendirth 35/1
Rory 14/1
Power 90/1
I do think that targeting the golfers that are going out the earliest will be the way to go this week. Russell Henley is the clear option, among golfers with an early tee time. You will see I added in a few more golfers to target as well.
I don't mind targeting Seamus Power as well. He has the early tee time, and he is one of the best bad weather golfers in the field.
3 Ball Bets Round 1:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Please note I pushed an update for the 3-Ball Bets that I will touch on below.
You see the page is still setup the same but with one change, and that is with the "Edge" this is the percent edge that we have on the Matchup Odds compared to the NineToFive Odds. But simply because a bet has a positive Edge does not make it automatically a good bet. How I will use the tool is set the Matchup Odds to at least 30% like pictured below. Then to the same for the "Edge %" drop down, but change this to at least 0.01.
Now the picture below will be what are ultimately "good" bets. The higher the matchup odds the more likely the bet is to hit. So for me I think I will just be rolling with Scottie, Zalatoris, Henley, Straka, and Bhatia to win their groups.
This update is to ensure has a more long-term profitable approach.
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Rory beating Scottie +125 BetMGM.
Shane Lowry beating Robert Macintyre -110 DK
Jason Day beating Tony Finau -110 DK
Round 1 Matchup Bets
JT Poston beating Si Woo Kim -110 Fanduel
Russell Henley beating Sepp Straka -110 Draftkings
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical
thresholds used to determine winners.
Last week we had one "good" outright bet and that was Sepp Straka, and he did fine finishing 15th. One thing that we noticed last year is the amount of "good" outright bets we get on a week pointed toward the predictability of the week. Last week ended up a pretty random week. That could be something to pay attention to. If that trend continues this week, we should have a predictable week this week with plenty of "good" bets listed.
I agree with most of these outright bets that are listed. I will be getting to Morikawa, and Taylor Pendrith for sure, and Russell Henley as well. To me those are the easy bets on the week. Henley is getting knocked for not having Course History here in the last 4 years but he did finish top 20 at the 2021 US Open that took place at Torrey Pines (South Course). It is worth noting that he is listed as a "possible" outright bet.
My Outright Bets:
Taylor Pendrith 40/1
Collin Morikawa 18/1 (Betonline)
Russell Henley 60/1
Sam Stevens 80/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
My Takeaways:
I agree with the data here, Taylor Pendrith is coming in checking all the boxes, and Scottie I agree with treating him as the top play even though he let down last week. With the weather projected to be bad for 2 rounds that gives both golfers a bump.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
My Takeaways:
I again agree with the data here. Justin Thomas is more of hit or miss option for me, where if you're playing him you are playing him because he can score. 2 events ago he scored around 3 less fantasy points than Scottie. JT in that event finished 48th whereas Scottie finished top 10. If JT gets hot it wouldn't be surprising to see him win. He does get a slight knock if the weather is bad.
From there the next plays are all simply and easy.
Patrick Cantlay should be a very safe play. Henley is tough not to love this week. Sam Burns has been a slight let down recently but that is also why we are getting him so cheap.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
My Takeaways:
One of the annoying things this season thus far is that a lot of guys have won the week before the week. Nick Taylor, Sepp Straka, and Thomas Detry. What I mean by that is had all of them simply finished top 10 or top 5 in their wins then the next week they would have been easier clicks as they were all better options on paper that next week. (mostly due to better course history). That is what we have with Detry this week. I think he is a good pick but possibly to high priced.
I like Morikawa, and Hideki more than the data, and I will be treating them more as High Exposure plays.
Sungjae is about the same play to me as JT. A great risk/reward play.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
My Takeaways:
Again I agree with the data here. I basically see all of these golfers as good "Shoulder Shrug" plays where if you end up on them at their price you are closing out you build and feeling good.
Some other plays that I like as well this week due to the setup of the tournament where it basically will play out as a no-cut event are Nick Taylor, Kevin Yu, and Seamus Power.
Billy Horschel is someone that over his last 5 starts on these type of greens is the best putter which I do think is interesting. Could he be someone that bounces back? I think so. Lastly I have closed out a couple of builds with Justin Rose, who I do think will be able to play good enough this week.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + Taylor, Stevens
GPP: JT, Sungjae, Lowry, Woo Lee
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
The lineup above is a lineup that I think is super safe for us to get to this week. If you're worried about the cut at all this should be a good lineup.
I am actually a pretty big fan of the optimal build this week as well. Seems both safe but also targets a lot of upside.
Optimal Build: From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
PROJECTED OWNERSHIP / OWNERSHIP LEVERAGE
From the NineToFive Ownership Leverage Page.
Another week where I wouldn't say that anyone is too high owned or too low owned. The ownerships all seem pretty correct. Only slight edges this week.
I get why people are getting to Clark, and Will Zalatoris but at the same time they are risk/reward options so I also get why the data is calling out that they might be slightly too high valued this week.
I will say I am shocked that Pendrith is not extreme chalk this week. Could just be due to his price tag, and I get that but he is a pretty obvious play. Maybe people are thinking the wheels fall off this week, but that would purely be a guess.
Alright, that is all for the week, hope you enjoyed the writeup. If you're a NineToFive Member I will see you in the Discord. If you're not a NineToFive Member, think about becoming one! If you're coming from X (Twitter) a like and a retweet is greatly appreciated on the post of this article. (Link back to X: https://x.com/925_Sports/status/1889755839289762250 )
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