Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
2025 Record | Units Profit
- H2H Bets: 43/57 | 23
- 3-Ball: 61/116 | 30.4
- FRL: 6/42 | 7.1
- Outrights: 0/49 | -49
- Prop Sites: 38/51 | 17
- DFS Profitable Weeks: 5/7 (1 Push)
Betting Units Profit = 28.5
2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
Make sure to subscribe to the NineToFive Golf YouTube Channel. Link is below.
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Bogey Avoidance (BA) Key Stat 1
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2
Good Drive % (GD %) Scoring Key Stat 3
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 4
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 5
Wedge Scoring - Key Stat 6
This course is all about having golfers set themselves up in good spots on each hole, and we tend to see accuracy matter a lot more here. Those are the golfers that are not making bogeys, and as a result those are the golfers that tend to make the cut more. Now it is worth calling out that the course did play easier last year than it has in years past, and that did slightly change what the key stats were. As for now we are treating that more as an outlier year, rather than making (minor) adjustments to the key stats.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
This week, I find the pricing to be notably lenient for both DFS and betting. There are numerous golfers in the 7K price range that I'm eager to bet on for a top 20 or top 40 finish, indicating that the 7K range is packed for DFS. This makes this week seem a bit easier on paper.
The challenging aspect this week isn't finding inexpensive options; it's similar to last week, where the focus is on selecting the right top-end players to complete your lineups. All golfers priced above 9K are excellent choices, but each has minor imperfections.
Weather:
The weather is projected to get a little breezy on Friday and Saturday. Overall though the wind does not look to play a big factor.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Last week we hit Harry Hall 40/1 chopped by 3.
Russell Henley 45/1 DK
Sepp Straka 45/1 DK
Denny McCarthy 55/1 DK
Daniel Berger 45/1 DK
Lee Hodges 70/1 DK
Ryan Gerard 70/1 DK
Max Greyserman 60/1
3 Ball Bets Round 1:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Nicolai Hojgaard - 3.05
Zach Johnson - 3.14
Andrew Putnam 3.13
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Last week these week 2/2
Nicolai Hojgaard +100 over Andrew Novak: DraftKings
Denny McCarthy +100 over Daniel Berger: DraftKings
Russell Henley +100 over Shane Lowry: DraftKings
Keith Mitchell -115 over Hun An: FanDuel
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical
thresholds used to determine winners.
I am fine getting to Daniel Berger who has been playing much better recently, while also loving this course, he would not be my first click though.
My Outright Bets: (Beau Hossler and Kevin Roy are fomo bets)
Taylor Pendrith 30/1 BetMGM
Sepp Straka 25/1 All Books
Russell Henley 22/1 Most Books
Denny McCarthy 40/1 Bovada
Keith Mitchell 45/1 Bovada
Kevin Roy 90/1 BetOnline
Half Units on Ryan Gerard, and Bud Cauley (I talked myself into them during the post)
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
My Takeaways:
I would agrue that if Taylor Pendirth is a Core Play that Keith Mitchell should also be a Core Play. Taylor Pendrith I do really love this week, and he is in the 2nd best form in the field (after Henley) but Pendrith did miss the cut on the number at this event, so there is a slight worry.
Still I get what the data is seeing with Pendrith I will just be treating him more as an High Exposure play this week. Taylor Pendrith is also a golfer he lives in the area, so that speaks to the success he has had at this tournament prior to being as good of a golfer as he is now.
Russell Henley is pretty clearly the best play on the board this week, and should also be the safest.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
My Takeaways:
Personally I do not see a big difference in Sepp Straka, Denny McCarthy and Taylor Pendrith. Now the data does value safety and upside together, so when we see that McCarthy has missed two straight cuts here, and Straka has a recent bad finish on the tour, and a missed cut at this tournament last year I guess it makes sense that the data likes Pendrith more. Still I value them all as strong GPP plays, but maybe we target Pendrith more in cash.
Bud Cauley has been playing well, and he is basically checking all the boxes. I am toying around with closing the betting card with him or Ryan Gerard. Just their odds have gotten lower as the week has progress thus I don't really want to recommend them at their current odds. More than happy to go out of my way to be on Cauley this week, and I like the idea of betting him top 20 still at 3/1. If you can find a made cut bet on him I would like that as well.
Bud Cauley does live / "Play From" 9 minutes away from this course as well.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
My Takeaways:
Shane Lowry and Sungjae Im are only priced as high as they are because of their upside they could both find themselves in contention to win, like they have done in the past. But both golfers are also very risky and it wouldn't be too shocking to see them miss the cut. Lowry is a great Specialist, but he has not been hitting the ball well thus far this season, and if that continues this week he could find himself in trouble.
Now we get to 3 golfers that I want to be going out of my way to target in Keith Mitchell, Kevin Roy, and Ryan Gerard.
Keith Mitchell is really getting knocked in the data due to his starts that date back to last fall. But when we look at only his 2025 starts we see 4 straight made cuts. The only issue there is that none of them have been inside of the top 10 but they have all been around 30 which is very solid. I like the idea of getting to Keith Mitchell at 2/1 to top 20 as well.
Kevin Roy is one of the better stat fits in the field ranking out top 10 and this is due to his great Ball Striking, Good Drive %, Bogey Avoidance, and Birdie to Bogey Ratio, all of which are the most important key stats this week. If you take out his WD from two weeks ago from (most likely) being sick then he would be ranking out much better. He will able to finish top 20 for us last week, and given that he has played this course well in the past finishing top 30 here 2 years ago I expect him to give us at least at top 20 finish. I do like him as a top 20 bet as well at 3.5/1. Roy is currently a Florida resident for what thats worth as well.
Ryan Gerard is just a slightly worse version of a play as Kevin Roy on paper, although he does live about 30 minutes from the course in Jupiter, Florida, and maybe that points to why he had a top 5 finish here in his only start at this event. Alright I talked myself into Gerard as an outright bet. Fire him off at 80/1. But I also like him at 3.3/1 to top 20 as well.
Sam Ryder is another strong golf play at a cheat price tag. Ryder has an average finish of 12th at this event over the past 4 years in 3 starts. He has also made 5 straight cuts on the PGA Tour setting up for a great golf play as well.
CT Pan was a little bit of a let down last week, but he has still made 5 straight cuts on the PGA Tour and 3 straight cuts at this event.
I like Min Woo Lee at this price, as well as Lucas Glover.
Basically I agree with a lot of the plays that are popping here.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
My Takeaways:
Players in this range that I have gotten a decent amount of are Harry Hall, Lee Hodges, and Alex Smalley. They are all priced too cheap, and they are all players that I expect will have a good week.
Worth calling out that Greyserman is a guy that lives in the area as well. It is part of the reason as to why I like him as a FRL bet. His game might not be there to win this week on paper, but it can be there for one round.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Henley, Mitchell, Cauley, Gerard, Roy
GPP: Lowry, Im, Berger
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Both of the builds above I do really like but also I wish I was closing out the builds with a little bit more confidence. Alex Smalley is a play that I like but there are several other golfers around him that I could get to as well.
The second build I could easily go with Straka over McCarthy which I have done in GPPs, heck you could go WOo Lee as well. That's the issue they are all the same play. It could be like last week where some might have been on Sam Stevens, and Beaus Hossler who missed the cut, and other were on Rai, Jaeger and Hall who all scored well. That is this week too.
As for the optmial build I am a little bit shocked at the lineup. I actually probably should be on Bill Horschel and I will be in 150 lineups but maybe he in someone that should be a "Lower Exposure" play as he is someone that I could see winning. The Optimal build below is just a little bit too risky for my liking. But I do think it is a solid GPP build. (Strangely chalkish though)
Optimal Build: From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
PROJECTED OWNERSHIP / OWNERSHIP LEVERAGE
From the NineToFive Ownership Leverage Page.
Sam Stevens has WD.
I would find it very strange for Daniel Berger to actually come in that high owned especially when you compare him against cheaper, better or just as good of playing in Taylor Pendrith, Denny McCarthy, and Keith Mitchell who are all popping up as under owned. I would love for that to be the case come lineup lock.
Alright, that is all for the week, hope you enjoyed the write-up. If you're a NineToFive Member I will see you in the Discord. If you're not a NineToFive Member, think about becoming one! If you're coming from X (Twitter) a like and a retweet is greatly appreciated on the post of this article. (Link back to X: https://x.com/925_Sports/status/1894552117311889580 )
Comentários