Welcome to the desert, where the sun isn't the only thing shining bright this January. The 2025 American Express Golf Tournament is set to dazzle golf enthusiasts as it kicks off the PGA Tour's West Coast swing in La Quinta, California. From January 16 to 19, the event will unfold across three iconic courses - the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA WEST, and the historic La Quinta Country Club.
The Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West underwent significant renovations in preparation for the 2025 American Express Tournament. The main changes included:
Bunker and Greens Revamp: All 18 green complexes were renovated, including a redesign of the bunkers to bring them back to their original 1986 design when the course first opened. This involved creating "flat-bottom" bunkers with grass sides, aiming to restore the visual intimidation and strategic challenge Dye intended.
Expanded Greens: The greens were expanded to allow for more pin placements, particularly enhancing the challenge for the final round on Sundays, which is exclusive to professionals.
The reasons behind these changes were multifaceted:
Historical Restoration: To return the course to its original design ethos by Pete Dye, focusing on what made it unique and challenging from the outset.
Player and Spectator Experience: The renovations aimed to make the course more engaging for both players and spectators by reintroducing the strategic elements that define a Pete Dye course.
Adaptation to Modern Golf: With advancements in golf technology, player fitness, and the game itself, the course needed to evolve to keep up with the times while maintaining its historical challenge.
Tournament Significance: As the host course for the American Express, ensuring it remains a formidable test for the world's best golfers was crucial for the tournament's prestige.
These changes reflect a commitment to preserving the course's legacy while ensuring it remains relevant and challenging in today's golfing landscape. Enough with the fluff let's get into the data and picks.
Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections.
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Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BoB) Key Stat 1
Par 5 Scoring (Par5) Key Stat 2
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3
Ball Striking (BS) Key Sat 4
Although we do not get data on the two secondary courses for us to fully understand which
Key stats to focus on indicate that this week is all about targeting golfers who can score well. The most crucial stat is Birdie Or Better % (by a large margin). Par 5 Scoring has also proven to be one of the most important stats to consider.
Often, events like these are referred to as a "putting fest," but this doesn't mean we should target only great putters. Instead, we should focus on golfers who can set themselves up for birdie opportunities and get hot with the putter. This is where Total Driving and Ball Striking become important.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years Course History (event history this week)
Stadium Course Scoring Average:
2024: 69.148 (-2.852)
2023: 67.731 (-4.269)
2022-2020: 67.52 (-4.47)
La Quinta Scoring Average:
2024: 67.902 (-4.098)
2023: 67.846 (-4.154)
2022-2020: 67.47 (-4.53)
Nicklaus Tournament Course Scoring Average:
2024: 68.082 (-3.918)
2023: 67.154 (-4.846)
2022-2020: 66.38 (-5.62)
Typically speaking the Nicklaus Course is the easiest of the three courses, that changed last year where the La Quinta Scoring Average was slightly easier. For Showdown purposes I would still favor Nicklaus Course, but the best approach will be to target half your lineups on the Nicklaus Course and half on the La Quinta.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
This is still only the third event of the year, and we are still seeing some of the golfers for the first time this season. We are also dealing with some golfers traveling back from Hawaii, and we do not know whether or not the course changes will make a difference in who we should be targeting.
On top of all of that this is a three course tournament that promotes low scores, the easier a tournament plays the more it brings the rest of the field in thus makes it a more random week.
I still think this is a week where we should be holding off on going crazy with our bankrolls.
Weather:
No projected weather problems this week..
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Posted Tuesday
3 Ball Bets Round 1:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
No 3-Ball Bets for the first 3 Rounds at this event. Below I have the best Tournament and Round 1 Matchup Bets.
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Round 1 Bets:
Adam Schenk beating Emiliano Grillo -110 FanDuel
Patton Kizzire beating Brendon Todd -120 FanDuel
Christiaan Bezuidenhout beating Harris English -120 FanDeul
Tournament Bets:
Patrick Cantlay beating Sam Burns +100
Justin Thomas beating Sungjae Im +100 (even though Sungjae is more likely to play better than Justin Thomas the odds are wrong)
Eric Cole beating Nico Echavarria +100
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical
thresholds used to determine winners.
My Outright Bets:
Sungjae Im: 14/1 BetMGM
Sam Burns: 18/1 BetMGM
Max Greyserman: 40/1 BetMGM
Patrick Cantlay: 18/1 All Books
Jason Day: 70/1 FanDuel
Justin Thomas: BetMGM 16/1
Ben Griffin: 60/1 FanDuel
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag.
My Takeaways:
I have no real complaints with the data's evaluation of the Core Plays. I do think Justin Thomas should be priced lower than Tony Finau, but that's the only difference. All these golfers have performed well in this tournament in the past, and they are all in great form.
Sungjae Im is the top-ranked golfer in the field this week (now that Xander has withdrawn). He has achieved six consecutive top 25 or better finishes at this tournament and has placed in the top 10 in three of his last four events. He ranks in the top 10 or better in all the key metrics we consider.
Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau appear to be essentially the same play to me on paper. Both should be very reliable, and both have a decent amount of potential upside.
Considering the price for JT (being the highest-priced golfer), I find him the toughest choice here. I actually prefer him more as an outright bet than as a DFS play.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
My Takeaways:
Personally I view Sam Burns as a Core Play this week, the one knock that the data is getting him for is his missed cut at this event three years ago. Besides that he is an ELITE option this week. He has finished 11th and 6th at this tournament the past 2 years, he ranks top 10 or better in BOB %, Par5 Scoring, and Ball Striking over his past 5 starts. On top of that he has an average finish of 6th over his past 4 starts. He should be priced higher than JT to me.
Ben Griffin is one of those golfers that is just coming in casually checking all the boxes. Due to his price he makes for an easy click this week in DFS, and I like him at least as a top 20 bet here.
Jeremey Paul I think is a fine value option if you need to go down that low, but by no means do I think he is someone we should be going out of our way to target.
Davis Thompson, and Cameron Young do hold winning upside, and I do not like the idea of not getting to them, but I do feel like at their prices it will be tough to go out of your way to target them.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
My Takeaways:
Wyndham Clark is just a worse version of Cameron Young and Davis Thompson this week, he is another play that is tough to get to again due to his price. The biggest issue that I have this week is the $9,400 - $8,000 range, all golfers are basically toss ups, and sure are they boom/bust options but that is what makes them tough to trust this week as well.
Max Greyserman is another one of those golfers that do me is a tough click DFS wise due to his price, but I do like the outright odds that we are getting on him. To me he makes for a better player to bet on rather than he does a player to play in DFS lineups.
Jason Day I view more as a Core Play, I am guessing the data is knocking him due to his lack of great finishes at this track over the past 3 years. He has made 3 straight cuts but has finished 34th, 18th, and 49th. His form as also been decending finishing 40th, 33rd, 22nd, and 9th. But the form dates back to last year. He still ranks out top 30 or better in all the key metrics that we look at.
The rest of the plays I agree with them being Mid Exposure options.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
My Takeaways:
The issue that we have this week is that we have a ton of great options, and a ton of golfer that I do think we could be going out of our way to target.
Harry Hall, and Nico Echavarria have been solid options for us lately, and I will be going back to the well with them.
Mac Meissner is also a similar play, a golfer that has been playing solid golf and is at a cheap price tag.
Si Woo Kim, JJ Spaun, Will Zalatoris, and Eric Cole are all golfer I think we could see in the mix on Sunday.
Jhonattan Vegas however is a better stat fit than all 4 of them but is priced nearly $1,000 cheaper than all of him. Vegas is much more hit or miss which is why we are getting the price discount, but the whole point of targeting golfers in this range is to chase their upside.
Jacob Bridgeman, Rico Hoey, Justin Lower, and Victor Perez are all golfers I could see making the cut, and are all pretty cheap.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Sungjae, Finau, Cantlay, Griffin, Day
GPP: Greyserman, Nico, Fishburn, Zalatoris, Kitayama, Glover
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
I can almost guarantee you that my main lineup will be changing as the week progresses, but this is what I am looking at right now. The optimal build listed below is very similar to my first look build, which is interesting. It kind of feels like one of those weeks where, on paper, it is tough to make a wrong play/lineup.
Optimal Build: From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
PROJECTED OWNERSHIP / OWNERSHIP LEVERAGE
From the NineToFive Ownership Leverage Page.
As anticipated, Will Zalatoris is receiving a lot of attention this week. It seems like people are finding reasons to choose him rather than relying on data that indicates he's a strong choice. We've seen similar situations this year with Justin Thomas and Nick Taylor. JT was the easiest fade we might get on the year, while Nick Taylor won. I believe Taylor's win is why Zalatoris is highly owned. My concern with Zalatoris is that there are better options that are more affordable and better picks. Take Patrick Fishburn, for instance, who has been playing better golf and has half the ownership at a lower cost.
It's surprising that Jason Day isn't popular, and even more surprising that he's the best leverage play. He seems to be a very safe choice at a very low price.
I mentioned in previous weeks that Harry Hall was the right choice at his price, regardless of his finish, simply because of his price. That's how I feel about Jason Day. Adding the fact that it's easy to have a larger stake in him makes him an elite option.
PS I dislike that Burns, Im, and Greyserman are now some of the highest owned goflers.
2 STRAIGHT GOOD WEEKS, HOPING FOR A 3RD ONE THIS WEEK, GOOD LUCK!
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