Shriners Children's Open: Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, Ownership Leverage, and Player Pool)
- 925 Sports
- Oct 15, 2024
- 6 min read
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the Shriners Children's Open
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB)
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP)
Strokes Gained Off the Tee (SG OT)
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - Combination stat.
Course History has proven that this week is all about scoring, and it is no surprise that these are the key stats. In simple we need to be targeting golfers that can score.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Still during the fall swing where a lot of the golfers we will be targeting have not played that many competitive rounds. This leads to results being less easy to predict. On top of that we have an "EASY" scoring event thus we can expect this event to also be high variance.
The "Data Tag" is giving us a Core Play this week actually but Taylor Pendrith has not made a start this fall swing so I don't event consider him a traditional Core Play.
I think this sums up the predictableness of this week.
Weather:
Weather typically does play a part in deciding who plays well, and that seems to be the same case again this week, especially on Thursday, and potentially on Friday.
This is something to pay attention to for both Showdown Slates and main slates.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
I like the top 3 outright bets the most.
Tom Kim is a little bit too hit or miss to really trust as a Core Play, but Outright wise he makes a lot of sense due to that. The issue with him is, can we really see him 3-peating.
Davis Thompson is a solid option this week, he ranks top 6 or better in all the key metrics that we look at. I think he makes for a better outright bet than he does a DFS play.
Seamus Power is my favorite play this week. He has made 8 straight cuts on the PGA Tour, having an average finish of 14th over his last 4 starts. He has course history here as well. The only concern with Power is that he is not the best stat fit.
Spaun and Mitchell also make for better outright bets than DFS plays but they do not have my trust. (especially you Keith Mitchell)
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag.
Takeaways:
The theme this fall swing has been to not trust the typical safe plays, and on paper Pendrith should be a safe play as well. He is top 50 or better in all the key stats that we look out. He is in the best form in the field. He has made 3 straight cuts at this event with a top 5 finish.
HE IS THE IDEAL PLAY, BUT.....
We have not seen him play since the Tour Championship. This will lead to some variance. I love him as a play but I could see him struggling to get those fully going.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
I again with the upside that all of these plays have, but they are all getting knocked slightly.
Davis Thompson has finished worse over his last 3 events. Power missed the cut at this event his last time out (two years ago), and he could be a better stat fit for this price.
JJ Spaun finishing top 10 would not be shocking at all but he also is risky, and that is why he is priced this way. I am a little surprised the data views him as a high exposure play.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
Tom Kim is coming in with some bad form for a golfer that is the "top" golfer in the field. He also is not the best stat fit. I can easily see why the data is discounting him.
Tom Hoge is a play that I could see winning, and I like him more than the data does this week. 3 out of 4 made cuts here in the past 4 years, top 10 stat fit, and has made the cut in his last 4 events, and he is coming in off of a top 10 finish recently.
Harry Hall has played well here, and has played well on the PGA Tour, he is at a good price tag, at the same time he is not really that different of a play from Sam Stevens, Doug Ghim, and Henrik Norlander who are all too cheap.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
The data sees a lot of the plays the same, I Ben Griffin, Jhonattan Vegas, Chan Kim, Brendon Todd, Justin Lower a lot more than the data does. Where the picture cuts off is Rico Hoey who I also like more than the data.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + High Exposure
GPP: Hossler, Kitayam, Kizzire
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
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