Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the Scottish Open
Quick Updates Made to the Website for Golf: Added in Head to Head Betting Picks Tool, this can be found under the betting tool. This will be for both the tournament and the round. This will compare the specific book, against the average sportsbook odds from several different sources to see if we are gaining an edge on a bet. Another way we can gain an edge is by comparing the NineToFive Odds against the Book odds. Below is an example using the tournament only market. (I will have a video breaking down how to use this tool at some point)
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB)
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5)
Total Driving (TD)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat
Bogey Avoidance (BA)
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SGT2G)
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Course History Last 4 Years (2 years on PGA, 2 Years DP Tour)
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I have found this week to be an easy week to narrow down my player pool whether or not that is a good thing we will see. This is not an event in which I am overly excited to attack.
Weather:
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Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
Xander
Aaron Rai
Rory
Fleetwood
Min Woo Lee
ISCO Championship: A lot of odds are down from the Monday video from my suggest bets. Below are their current best odds. (excluding Rico Hoey who is down from 70/1 to 35/1)
Luke Clanton 10//1 (BetMGM)
Mac Meissner 40/1 (PointsBet)
Ben Silverman 40/1 (Betonline, Unibet)
Joel Dahmen 50/1 (PointsBet)
Harry Hall 66/1 (PointsBet)
Piercsson Coody 80/1 (Bet365)
Hayden Buckley 70/1 (BetMGM)
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
Rory, Xander, and Tommy speak for themselves as plays this week.
Min Woo Lee and Aaron Rai I view more as price point core plays. Min Woo Lee has been finishing top 30 or better consistently this season, and he is a former winner. That being said Aaron Rai is also a former winner and is overall a better play than Min Woo Lee. The difference comes in whether or not being in contention for 2 straight weeks with hinder Aaron Rai. Give Rai's price I feel like he is a solid starting point.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
All these plays I think have tremendous upside, but they are all plays that I could see missing the cut.
I am a little worried about Davis Thompson not having course history here, and also making the trip overseas after winning last week. But Thompson doesn't strike me as a guy that would have went too crazy with the celebrations last week. I think he will show up ready to go this week, and if he does he is too cheap.
Corey Conners continues to deliver good enough or great results for us making the cut in 25 straight starts now. He has had a better result at this tournament over his last 3 tries, finishing top 20 last week, he should be an easy safe play.
Aberg gets a slight knock for his 78th place finish here, besides that he is an elite play.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
Collin Morikawa is getting a knock due to his poor course history but given the form that he has been in (4th in the field) it is going to be tough not to like him this week. He is my one fomo bet when it comes to outrights, and the course history is why I am not including him.
Tom Kim has just been a little bit too spotty to fully trust, we know when he is on his A game that he can find himself in contention like he has done the past two years here finishing 6th and 3rd.
Thomas Detry feels like a sneaky good cash play, sure he isn't the best stat fit, but he has played extremely well at this course. He has made 4 straight cuts that includes two top 10 finishes. He is also a top 10 specialist who has made 5 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
I think C Bez is also a play that is a little bit sneaky, he has one recent missed cut which was at the PGA Championship. There he had a bad opening round that caused him to miss the cut, besides that he has been playing great golf. I think he gives us a good chance at a made cut at a cheap price tag.
Fitzpatrick I see as a GPP only play, as he has been hit or miss and this price doesn't really reflect that.
Lower Exposure
High priced golfers that I will be underweight on from the field but still want exposure to, and more GPP only plays.
Takeaways:
Tom Hoge and EVR are GPP only plays, as they could provide top 10 upside if they are on their game. Ben Griffin and Andrew Novak are options to look at to get a cheap made cut.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core, Conners, Detry, CBez, (Griffin if needed)
GPP: Fitzpatrick, Morikawa, Kim, Clark
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
I feel like this build gives me the best chance at getting 6/6 across the cut line but I do worry about the upside that this lineup has a whole.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
Sign me up for 10% Corey Conners because if that happens I will be overweight on him by at least double. The only golfers that I feel I slightly too high owned are McKobin and Macintyre but I also get their appeal.
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