Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB)
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP)
Ball Striking (BS)
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - Combination stat.
This tournament is also all about scoring. The way golfers are able to score is from their second shot approaches thus it makes sense why Ball Striking and Strokes Gained Approach tend to pop as great key stats.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years Course History
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Like last week I really like the builds that I have been able to make, but unlike last week weather should not be a worry. Thus I think the variance will be reduced. This should lead to this week being a little bit more predictable.
Weather:
The earliest golfers on Thursday might end up having a slight advantage due to the wind being about 4mph lower for an hour or two, but that edge is not enough to chase anything for the mian slate and barely anything for RD1.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
My Outright Bets:
Greyson Sigg
JJ Spaun
Ben Griffin
Seamus Power
Mackenzie Hughes
Jacob Bridgeman
Wesley Bryan
Greyson Sigg
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag.
Takeaways:
The data only liked one Core Play last week and that was Ben Griffin, and he is the one Core Play we have again this week, $500 cheaper, after a top 10 finish last week.
Griffin has made two straight cuts at this tournament and ranks top 12 or better in the key metrics that we look at. Simply put he is checking all the boxes this week.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
An issue that we have this week is that we have a lot of big name golfers that are high priced that have not played much, or at all during the fall swing. So to me it is encouraging that the data is already telling us not to go crazy on those top end golfers minus Ludvig Aberg. I am fine playing Aberg I am just not over prioritizing him.
Seamus Power is a great play minus one recent missed cut which was the result of a bad round. He is a solid play at a great price tag.
Austin Eckroat I would love on a play if he were not coming in off of a WIN. I always tend to knock those golfers a little as we got their spike week (in a good way) in their previous event. Still he is a great play this week and he is at a great price tag. The price tag is actually almost too good.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
JJ Spaun is a play that I love this week, and I see him as a Core Play. I am not sure why he is not getting that tag from the data. 3 Straight cuts at this event a top 15 stat fit, and 4 straight made cuts is great. He also has a top 10 finish mixed in there. I love him this week and his price.
Jacob Bridgeman is another golfer that I view more as a Core Play this week and that is due to his price, but also he has made 5 straight cuts in a row with each finish getting better. He has played this course before finishing 54th. He is a great stat fit as well ranking out top 20. I will be on him a lot at this price.
Another play that I love at his price is Wesley Bryan he has played a lot thus far this fall swing and has played well. He is a good stat fit and has course experience finishing 44th here last year.
We see that the data only like Davis Thompson, Si Woo Kim, Hughes, and Clanton as Mid Exposure plays, and due to their lack of competitive rounds recently I would agree.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
We have a ton of decent options this week, consisting of golfers that could all pop. I am sort of ok with all of these options. The only plays I like a little bit more than what the data is suggestion in terms of player exposure is Vince Whaley, and Lanto Griffin.
Lanto Griffin has made 8 straight cuts in a row, and Whaley has made 5. Whaley has better course history, and finished better last week. Both a solid options though.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core
GPP: Aberg, Mcneally, Si Woo Kim, Thompson, Highsmith
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Optimal Build:
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