Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the PROCORE Championship.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B)
Strokes Gained Off the Tee (SGOT)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat
Ball Striking (BS)
Par 4 Scoring (Par4)
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years event/course history
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I really like the odds that we are getting this week for betting, and I really like the lineups that we are able to make this week. The only issue with this week is that most of the golfers in the field have not played competitively for over a month or two.
Weather:
Weather seems to be a none issue this week.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
Sahith Theegala 12/1
Corey Conners 14/1
JJ Spaun 30/1
Mac Meissner 60/1
Chan Kim 55/1
Luke Clanton 22/1
Wyndham Clark 12/1
Patrick Fishburn 75/1
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
Theegala is the top player in the field this week in salary, odds, and in data rank. Given the soft pricing that we have he is very easy to fit into our builds.
I am either starting my builds out with Theegala or going with a fair and balanced build by going with Brendon Todd. Todd has a great course history and has been in strong form making 5 straight cuts.
JJ Spaun is a play that holds a lot of upside, he has finished 11th, and 9th at this course in the past 4 years. He also in coming in with great form finishing top 10 in two straight events while making 6 straight cuts.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
Conners would be a core play this week if not for his one missed cut at this course which is his only course history at this event over the past 4 years. Besides that Conners is the second-best play on the board this week. He has one of the highest made cut likelihoods in the field, and he should be a safe play, I also like his chances to win this week.
Clanton is a great GPP play, and is a play you make to target a top 10 finish and a possible win.
Patrick Rodgers is a pretty elite option for fair and balanced builds. He has made 3 straight cuts at this event with a top 10 finish. He has also made 7 straight cuts, with at least 1 top 10 finish. He is a strong stat fit as well, he is really checking all the boxes.
Chan Kim has one recent missed cut, and has 0 course history, but he does hold strong top 10 upside which is why I am valuing him as a high exposure play. I view him more as a GPP only play though.
Justin Lower has been a player that I have gotten on more and more as the week has progressed. Basically look at Patrick Rodgers as a play, and Lower is just a worse version of him. I also like him in balanced builds.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
The only knock I have on Hoge is his form, making 3 straight cuts and then having 3 straight 70th(ish) finishes. He should be a strong play this week but also should slightly be knocked.
Sam Stevens should be a strong play at this cheap price tag there. As I am writing this I realize I could be a little bit too low on Stevens this week. He looks like a solid play. The issue is that Mac Meissner is in this price range, Neal Shipley should be a solid option as well.
The play that I like the most due to upside is Patrick Fishburn who missed the cut on the number in his last event prior to that he had finished 6th, 3rd, and 15th. He is a great stat fit as well. I think Fishburn could win this week which is why I really like him.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
Matt Kuchar is a play that I think should be a safe made cut, but at the same time so should Vegas, as a result, I see both more as a shoulder-shrug option but both I do expect to make the cut.
McNeally, Mitchell and Hoey are all strong GPP plays as they all hold strong upside.
Lower Exposure
Final lineup options, around 5% ownership, and fomo plays.
Takeaways:
All of these plays either have bad course history or bad form, but they all hold some upside, and strong upside considering their price tags.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + Lower, Rodgers, Stevens
GPP: Fishburn, Hoge, Meissner, Hoey, Mcneally, Mitchell
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
In this sample build I do think that Mackenzie Hughes does hold slightly more safety than Meissner but I think Meissner holds more upside. Hughes is a fine shoulder shrug play this week.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
Sam Stevens being too low owned is my biggest take away this could end up being the biggest edge for us this week.
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