Shriners Children's Open Preview
Overview/Recap
I am keeping the same breakdown of why early season DFS can be difficult. There is just a high variance to it.
1) A lot of golfers have not played since the playoffs started. (Which is why they are playing in this event to hopefully get some FedEx Cup points early.) More time off = more variance.
2) Golfers that played in the FedEx Cup playoffs went through 3 straight weeks of different goals, some just trying to move on, some trying to secure a PGA Tour Card, some trying to win it all. After 3 straight event of mental grinding it is not a surprise to see someone struggle to be mentally sharp again in the first event back.
3) A lot of "new" golfers on the tour season, whether that being rookie golfers or KFT grads. A lot of the KFT guys had been playing some great golf leading into this event, but mentally where will they be will they be content with making the Tour or will they have the mental strength to continue to play well.
As you can see we have a lot more pieces to the puzzle this week compared to end-of-season golf when it is just, great course history, great stat fit, and great form - a great play. This is why we see a lot more early season variance.
Key Stats:
- Effective Scoring
- BOB%
- SG AP
- SG OT
- Par 5 SCR
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red
Last year I took down a GPP at this event, and a lot of other 925 Members had solid weeks. That makes me want to target this tournament more, but we know that is how early season DFS goes. More random, with less eyes on, and when you hit it means you can have a greater chance at winning.
Weather:
Weather report is telling us that we should have a pretty nice weekend.
*Note I will continue to attack the SD Slate with the AM tee times until the weather suggests that this is not the way to go.
BETTING
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times for FRL betting until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Keith Mitchell 55/1
Wyndham Clark 75/1
Seamus Power 60/1
Adam Hadwin 60/1
Mito Pereira 55/1
Outright Bets:
Cantlay 6/1
Sungjae 9/1
Wise 18/1
Putnam 60/1
Homa 14/1
Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)
Placement Bets:
Top 10 Bets:
Cantlay
Sungjae
Homa
Wise
Top 20 Bets:
Montgomery
Grillo
HIGH-TIER PLAYS: ($9,000 AND UP)
Patrick Cantlay - $11,100 - Core Play + Outright Bet:
Cantlay is just one of the best plays that we will get all year for a slate especially compared to the field. This is Jon Rahm at the Mexico Open. Cantlay is top 12 or better in all the key stats that we are looking at, he has finished 8th, 2nd, and 2nd at this tournament. He has made 9 cuts in a row and has finished 7th, 1st, 57th, and 2nd over his last 4 starts. He is the 2nd best specialist, has the best course history, a top 5 stat fit, 1st in recent form, and the top play in the 925 model. All in all he should be a super safe play, and should be in contention to win on Sunday.
Max Homa - $10,600 - Mid Exposure:
Homa has missed the cut here 3 straight years in row, and that is the worry with him. Besides that he is an elite play, top 7 or better as a Specialist, Stat Fit and is recent form. He is getting knocked for course history but if he figures it out the sky is the limit.
Sungjae Im - $10,400 - Core Play + Outright Bet:
The defending champ is coming in as the second-best pick behind Patrick Cantlay. He has elite course history finishing 1st, 13th, and 15th at this event. He is a top 10 or better key stat in all the key stats that we are looking at overall ranking out as the 2nd best stat fit. He is top 5 in recent form having made 6 straight cuts in a row and having two runner-up finishes in his last 4 starts. Overall Sungjae Im is an elite play. I want to find a way to play Sungjae and Cantlay in most if not all of my builds.
Aaron Wise - $9,900 - High Exposure + Outright Bet:
Aaron Wise is one of my favorite play this week, and the data like him as well as he ranks out as the 4th best play. Wise has had mixed results here, he has finished 8th, MC, MC and 15th. So when he has been on he has really been on. He is a top 25 stat fit or better in all the key stats this week. Wise has made 5 straight cuts in a row will all of them being solid starts. He is a top 10 stat fit and top 10 in recent form rank. He is not a lock but is someone that has extreme upside.
Taylor Montgomery - $9,500 - High Exposure:
It is tough not to love Taylor Montgomery, he was elite on the KFT, and over his last three starts on the PGA Tour he has a top 11 finish or better in 3 out of his last 4 starts. In the small sample size of data that we have on him he is a top 3 stat fit. He has extreme upside to go out and compete.
Emiliano Grillo - $9,300 - High Exposure:
Grillo has alright course history here finishing 47th, 34th, and MC. he is a top 15 stat fit, and is top 10 in recent form. He finished 5th last week. He is someone that you might not be going out of your way to play, but he is someone that I am perfectly happy ending up on.
Cam Davis - $9,200 - High Exposure:
Davis has made the cut at this course 3 straight years with two top 30 finishes. He is a top 12 stat fit, and ranks out top 10 in BOB%. Davis is a top 10 specialist and is top 10 in recent form. The only issue is that in his last event he missed the cut.
MID TIER PLAYS: ($8,900 - $8,000)
Brian Harman - $8,900 - Mid Exposure:
Harman has been one interesting player lately, it seems like whenever you finally trust him is when he sucks, you get burnt by him and then boom he goes off and has a great week. That makes him tough to roster for me but he should be a solid play. Harman has finished MC, 13th, and 18th at this course. He is a top 25 stat fit, and top 20 in recent form rank. He should be a solid play.
Taylor Pendrith - $8,700 - Mid Exposure:
Pendrith is an interesting play, he has made the cut in his last 10 starts but over his last 4 starts he has two bad made cuts and then an 8th, and 13th place finish. He is top 10 in BOB%, and top 10 in SGTTL over the past 10 starts. He is someone that could be a strong play if his game is clicking.
Denny McCarthy - $8,400 - Low Exposure:
McCarthy has made 3 out of 4 cuts at this tournament with a 9th, and 15th place finish. The problem is that his most recent start was a missed cut. He has made 4 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour. McCarthy does rank out as a top 12 play this week.
JT Poston - $8,300 - Low Exposure:
Poston missed the cut last week which sucked, but now he is extremely cheap, and he is still a very solid play this week. We hope that last week was just a case of kicking off the rust. He still ranks out top 20 in recent form.
Other Picks I like:
Mitchell
LOW TIER PLAYS: ($7,900 - $7,000)
Thomas Detry - $7,900 - Low Exposure - Outright Bet:
Detry is top 20 in Specialist rating, Stat Fit, and Recent Form rank. Including his last start on the DP Tour he has finished 5th, 12th, and 9th which is pretty elite especially given this price point.
Adam Hadwin - $7,700 - High Exposure:
Hadwin is such an interesting play this week because his has some strong course history finishing 6th, 34th, and 4th at this tournament over the past 4 years. Now he is not a great stat fit ranking out 42nd in the field, but he is not poor in any particular stat fit. Hadwin has made 5 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour, and ranks out top 15 in the 925 Model.
Matt Kuchar - $7,600 - Mid Exposure:
Kuchar is another one of those interesting plays that I like. Kuchar has finished 35th, 34th, and 57th at this tournament. He ranks out top 20 in recent form rank, and finished 12th at the first start of the tournament of the season. He is someone I expect to make the cut.
Mark Hubbard - $7,400 - Low Exposure:
Hubbard has two missed cuts in a row at the event in 2021 and 2020 which is not what we want. On top of that he is not an elite stat fit only ranking out 36th in the field. THe good news is that he is a top 10 Specialist and top 12 in recent form. Overall he ranks out 26th in the field this week, and he is someone I could see getting a top 25 finish. At this price that is something that I like.
Taylor Moore - $7,600 - High Exposure:
Moore is getting knocked in the 925 Model simply because he does not have a huge sample size. Moore however is top 20 in or better in Course History, Stat Fit, and Recent Form Rank. He finished 24th at this event last year, and has been very consistent on the PGA Tour making the cut in 10 straight starts.
Mark Hubbard - $7,400 - Mid Exposure: Hubbard has been someone that over the past 4 months has found himself in contention a lot, and just has not been able to win. Hubbard is ranked top 15 in recent form rank. He is a top 25 stat fit. He has made two out of three cuts but his best finish was 42nd.
Ryan Palmer - $7,400 - Mid Exposure: Palmer should be a solid discounted play this week. He has made 3 out of 4 cuts on the PGA Tour with those being top 31 or better finishes. Palmer has made 3 out of 4 cuts at this tournament with a top 10 finish. The issue with Palmer is that his most recent start at this tournament was a missed cut.
Andrew Putnam - $7,300 - Core Play + Outright Bet: Putnam has finished 11th, 58th, and 18th at this tournament which is good for 16th best in the field. Putnam is top 20 or better in 3 of the key stats that we are looking at this week. But he does rank out 73rd in SGAP. The SGAP would be the worry with Putnam, but that is really the only worry that we have with Putnam as a play. He is top 10 in recent form rank making 6 straight cuts in a row. Putnam is a top 10 play in the 925 model as well.
Callum Tarren, Lee Hodges, and Greyson Sigg - Low Exposure - $7,000: All three of these players are somewhat the same play to me. Sigg and Hodges both made the cut at this event last year, and are in relatively good recent form. Tarren is someone that we know can go low, and on easier scoring events he can do really well, and he proved that last week finished 13th. It would not be shocking to see anyone of these plays do well this week.
Other Picks I like: Matthew NeSmith has great results at this tournament. He finished 9th in his last start. Nick Taylor made 3 out of 4 cuts at this tournament, and has finished top 20 in two straight starts.
VALUE TIER PLAYS: ($6,900 - $6,000)
I really do not like any of the value plays that we have this week, we have a few that are worth a look, and that is it.
Scott Piercy - $6,700 - Value Play: Scott Piercy has local ties to this course, and that is basically the reason why I like him. Now he did find himself in a position to win the 3M Open not too long ago which is somewhat of a similar style course / event. He has finished MC, 19th, MC, and 10th at this tournament. Piercy is coming in off of a 19th-place finish. Overall he ranks out as someone that should make the cut.
Garrick Higgo - $6,800 - Low Exposure: Higgo is a terrible play, the only reason he is someone I would look at is his local ties to this course, and the fact that he finished 3rd last week. He is not someone I love, but is someone you could play.
Ben Taylor - $6,700 - Low Exposure: Taylor made a lot of cuts in a row on the KFT, and has made 4 straight on the PGA Tour. He also finished 29th at this event last year. He is someone that I am ok with as a play.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Cantlay, Sungjae, Putnam, Moore, Hadwin, Harman, Kuchar, Grillo
GPP: Wise, Davis, Montgomery, Pendirth
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
As you will see the lineup process is not sexy, and the 6/6 is going to be extremely low this week. This is a good example of why I see it as a GPP only week.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned:
Apologies but the company that I get ownership through does not have projected ownership available for this tournament. Should be ready to go once the full season is here and in full swing.
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