And just like that we are back into another PGA DFS season! With this being the first tournament of the season, and a lot of golfers not having played competitive golf in over 2 months on some occasions this can create a big amount of variance. We know who the top golfers will be this week on paper, it is just a matter of if they show up or not.
That is the biggest corner this week is the time off for a lot of these golfers, the other concern is that it is a pretty bad field. This will create some variance.
Key Stats:
- Effective Scoring
- Ball Striking
- Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B)
- Strokes Gained Approach
- SG OT
The nice part about this tournament is that we have seen it enough to know which key stats we should be looking at this week, those key stats are listed above.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years of course history.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
The first tournament of the year no need to go too crazy.
Weather:
Weather looks to be a non-factor this week.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Outright Bets:
Theegala
Homa
Putnam
Thompson
Hardy
Spaun
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
I think it is pretty easy to see why Max Homa is the top play this week, the only big point I will got out my way to make with him this week is that he seems to be somewhat cheap relative to the field. He should be a surefire thing to give us at least a top-15 finish, the rest of the golfers in the field I can't say that.
Of course, I am loving some Andrew Putnam this week, he came through for us a bunch last year, and I expect that he will come through for us again this week. He has made 3 straight cuts at this event, and 9 straight on the PGA tour including a clutch top 1O finish for us in his last event. I like the price tag, as well. He will be super easy to fit into our builds.
Stephan Jaeger has not had the best results at this tournament and that is really my only hesitation with him as a play, and I believe that is why we are seeing Putnam be slightly valued as a better play compared to Jaeger. If Homa isn't a starting point it does make sense to pay up for Jaeger.
From there we get Brendon Todd who is looking like a great play especially if you find yourself going with a more fair and balanced build. He finished top 10 at this tournament last year, and has now made 6 straight cuts in a row including a top 10 finish in there. Starting Putnam and Todd could be a great way to start your builds.
From there we get Nick Hardy who ended his season playing great golf. I love his price tag.
High Exposure
Takeaways:
Theegala is a play that both would not be shocking to see in contention to win like he was last year at this event, but also would not be shocking to see him have a disappointing week. Given the price, and me ranking him as a high-exposure play I expect him to be in contention, but it is with slight risk.
JJ Spaun is going to be another one of those plays that makes a lot of sense in a fair and balanced build. He is getting knocked this week due to spotty course history, but I like that in one of his made cuts he did have a top-10 finish. The form, stat fit, and specialist ranking are all there for him to have a big week.
Davis Thompson is looking like one of the most underpriced golfers this week. He finished well at this tournament last year finishing top 10. Also, it is worth noting that his missed cuts recently were not bad missed cuts as they will all under-par missed cuts. His made cuts were all top 25 finishes.
Mid Exposure
Takeaways:
Looking at Eric Cole it is tough not to like him due to him being in the 2nd best recent form, the worry is his TD, and BS being some of the worst in the field. This does not seem to hurt him too much though as he is 4th in B2B, and top 15 in SGAP. Given his bad missed cut at this event last year he is a little bit risky, but he is also not the same player he was last year as he is this year.
Beau Hossler is just too hit or miss for me, but 3 out of 4 top-10 finishes to close out his season, and 3 straight top-30 finishes is intriguing to me. The price is a little bit juiced here.
Russell Knox has been a golfer that has been good enough, and given his price tag this week on DK it is tough for me not to end up on him. This is partially due to him making the cut 3 straight years in a row here.
Goya is another one of those plays I like because of the price and because he has been playing well enough for long enough to give us a good chance at a made-cut.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
Justin Suh was a golfer that was due for a bad week in his last start, and well he finally did have that bad week. I also think we are getting a little too much name value on this price this week, granted I do think that he makes the cut this week, thus I think he makes for a good shoulder shrug play.
Chez Reave has played well at this track over the past 4 years, and has had relatively good form. Not a player I am going out of my way to roster but he is a play that I have ended up on a decent amount this week.
Mark Hubbard is in terrible form, but has course history, he also peppers greens. You can see why he can have a good week or bad week pretty easily.
Matt Kuchar has made 4 straight cuts, and stat wise does not have any big weaknesses this week. He also has made 2 straight cuts at this track. The worry is how much upside he has but he should be able to make the cut.
Hadley I worry I might actually be too low on given his price. He has made 3 out of 4 cuts at this tournament and is coming in off of 3 straight top 35 finishes. Considering other golfers around his price he is pretty appealing.
Dyland Wu is a great stat fit that just needs to put it all together.
Nate Lashley is another solid shoulder-shrug play that I have ended up on this week. The worry with him is the lack of upside, but he should be a known factor, and is someone that should give us a good chance at a made cut.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this wee
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core, High Expsoure, Kuchar, Knox, Lashley, Hadley
GPP: David Thompson, Suh, Hossler
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
I feel like this build is the correct lineup path to end up on, but at the same time it does feel a little bit too risky.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned:
I wouldn't argue why people are ending up on Kevin Yu, Cameron Davis, and Justin Suh as much as they are but at the same time they are a little bit too risky for me, and I do feel like we get better options at similar prices. That is pretty clear just by looking at the ownership leverage tab.
Comments