Welcome to another exciting analysis of NBA prop bets for Thursday, December 5th, 2024! In this post, we will explore some of the best prop bets available, utilizing data from Underdog, PrizePicks and Sportsbook insights to find value and opportunities in the market. Let's dive into the games and find the best bets for today!
Denver Nuggets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Nuggets are taking on the Cavaliers in what should be a close game, with Cleveland favored by just 3.5 points. This is an interesting matchup, as the return of Aaron Gordon could impact the production of several Nuggets players.
Jamal Murray - Under 5.5 Assists:
Murray is averaging 6.3 assists per game on the season, but with Gordon back in the lineup, his assist numbers are likely to take a hit.
Per 36 minutes with Gordon on the court, Murray's assists drop to around 5.0 per game.
The line of 5.5 assists seems a bit high given the matchup and Gordon's return, so I like the value on the under here.
Christian Braun - Over 4.5 Rebounds:
Braun has been a solid contributor on the glass, averaging 5.1 rebounds per game.
In the last game against Golden State, he grabbed 6 boards in 24 minutes.
With the Cavaliers being a tough defensive team, Braun may need to focus more on crashing the glass, making the over on 4.5 rebounds an appealing bet.
Aaron Gordon - Over 20.5 Points:
Gordon is averaging 20.7 points per game on the season and has an 88% hit rate on this prop.
While there are some concerns about his minutes being limited in his first game back, he's shown the ability to produce efficiently in limited playing time.
Given the matchup and Gordon's track record, I think this line is a bit too low and provides solid value.
Despite concerns about his minutes, Gordon has an impressive 88% hit rate on this line this season. His return should allow him to score effectively, making this a favorable bet.
Darius Garland - Over 19.5 Points:
Garland has a favorable matchup against Denver, and if you’re looking to stack bets for this game, he could be a good addition.
Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks
The Knicks are massive 15-point favorites at home against the Hornets, which is a bit concerning for player prop bets in this game. However, there is one play I do like.
Brandon Miller - Over 25.5 Points:
With LaMelo Ball and Trey Murphy III out, Miller's usage rate increases by 10%, leading to about 3 more points per game.
He's averaging 24 points per 36 minutes with those two off the court.
While he struggled against the Knicks in their previous matchup, scoring just 20 points, he took 25 shots in that game. The volume should be there, and I think he can get to 26+ points.
The blowout risk is concerning, but Miller has still seen decent minutes in lopsided losses, so I'm willing to take a shot on the over here.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are facing a tough matchup against the Thunder, and there are some key players to consider for betting.
Scotty Barnes - Over 29.5 Points and Assists:
With Precious Achiuwa, Kelly Oubre, and Bruce Brown all out, Barnes should see a usage rate increase.
He's averaging 30.7 points + assists per 36 minutes with those players off the court.
The Raptors are underdogs in this game, so Barnes may need to be more aggressive offensively to keep them in it..
Jakob Poeltl - Over 25.5 Points and Rebounds:
With the potential for increased minutes in a competitive game, Poeltl's chances of hitting the over are promising.
Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies
This matchup is tricky, as the Kings have consistent players but often lack the juice in their lines.
For Memphis, Desmond Bane is worth considering, but with the team returning to health, it's becoming harder to predict playing time and performance.
Chicago Bulls vs. San Antonio Spurs
This game features the Spurs as 2.5-point home favorites, which is a bit surprising. However, there are a couple of Bulls players I'm interested in targeting.
Nikola Vucevic - Over 19.5 Points:
Vucevic is averaging 21.0 points per game on the season.
With Coby White out, Vucevic's points per 36 minutes increase by 1.2.
The Spurs don't have a great defensive answer for Vucevic, so I expect him to have a productive game.
Zach Collins - Over 22.5 Points +Rebounds +Assists:
In the three games Wemby has missed this season, Collins has seen a significant minutes increase, playing 21, 26, and 26 minutes.
His per-36 production in those games is outstanding, averaging 16.3 points and 12.3 rebounds.
The 22.5 line for points + rebounds seems very reasonable given Collins' increased role in Wemby's absence.
Josh Giddey Over Rebounds and Assists 14.5 (PrizePicks)
Giddey is averaging 16.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game this season.
With Coby White out, Giddey's usage and production should tick up.
He's coming off a 32-minute, 20/13/11 performance, and I think this line is a bit too low.
Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans
This game is currently a pick'em, which is interesting given the Suns' recent injury issues. There are a couple of Suns players I'm eyeing for props.
Devin Booker Over 29.5 Points (PrizePicks)
Booker is averaging 25.0 points per game on the season.
With Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton off the court, his points per 36 jump to 26.7.
The Pelicans are a decent matchup, and Booker should see a usage increase with the Suns' injuries, making the over 28.5 points an appealing bet.
Bradley Beal Over 18.5 Points (PrizePicks)
Beal is averaging 17.5 points per game this season.
He's been dealing with some injuries, but in his last game, he played 31 minutes and scored 22 points.
If Beal can get closer to 32-34 minutes in this game, I think the over 17.5 points is a solid play, as his per-36 production is 27.4 points without Durant and Ayton.
Putting it All Together
Alright, let's recap the bets I'm targeting for tonight's NBA slate:
Denver Nuggets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Jamal Murray Under 5.5 Assists (PrizePicks)
Christian Braun Over 4.5 Rebounds (Underdog)
Aaron Gordon Over 20.5 Points (-PrizePicks)
Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks
Brandon Miller Over 25.5 Points (PrizePicks)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Toronto Raptors
Scottie Barnes Over 29.5 Points + Assists (PrizePicks)
Yacine Diallo Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds (PrizePicks)
Chicago Bulls vs. San Antonio Spurs
Nikola Vucevic Over 19.5 Points (Underdog)
Zach Collins Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds (PrizePicks)
Josh Giddey Over AR 15.5 (PrizePicks)
Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Devin Booker Over 28.5 Points (PrizePicks)
Bradley Beal Over 18.5 Points (PrizePicks)
As always, make sure to shop around for the best lines and use the Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks promo codes to maximize your value.
Good luck, and let's keep cashing!
Recap: My Prop Betting Process
My process for finding the best NBA, NFL, PGA, and MLB prop bets involves thoroughly analyzing the data from Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks, as well as staying up-to-date on the latest injury news and matchup information.
The goal is to identify the lines that provide the most value and give you, the viewer, the information needed to make educated decisions on which props to target. I'll highlight the bets I'm most confident in, but ultimately, the choice is yours.
Remember, this is gambling, so don't blindly follow my picks. If a line changes and is no longer as favorable, it's probably best to avoid that bet. The key is to consistently attack the best numbers and maintain a long-term profitable approach.
My Prop Betting Track Record
Here's a look at my recent prop betting performance:
2023 Record:
Units Profited: 502
Win %: 61% (104/1696), with 17 ties
2024 Record:
Units Profited: 250.5
Win %: 59% (743/1228)
2024 NFL Record (Including Preseason):
Record: 309/510
Units Profit: 26
2024 NBA Record:
Picks: 90/156
Units Profit: 116
The unit size used in these metrics is $15, which is the average bet size for my followers. This includes all the bets I highlight at the end of my videos, as well as the "Taco Tuesday" bets where I recommend 5 individual plays.
Stay Connected
Be sure to follow me on social media to stay up-to-date on the latest prop betting content:
And if you're looking for more sports betting content, check out my reviews of the Snell MTB Golf Ball, the Oncore Elixr Golf Ball, and a comparison of the Vice Pro Plus vs ProV1.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your prop bets tonight!
Comments