In the dynamic world of NBA betting, having the right tools can make a significant difference. One such tool is the NBA Cheat Sheet, designed to provide bettors with essential insights and data to make informed decisions. This blog post will explore how to effectively utilize the NBA Cheat Sheet, breaking down its features, functionalities, and how to leverage it for prop betting success.
Understanding the NBA Cheat Sheet
The NBA Cheat Sheet is a comprehensive tool that offers a game-by-game breakdown of NBA matchups. It highlights key aspects such as projected starting lineups, injury reports, and player performance metrics. By using this cheat sheet, bettors can assess which bets are worth placing based on the current landscape of the league.
Note - The tools are designed to be used on a computer. It can be used as a mobile device, it just will not be as functional.
Prop Betting Strategies
The NineToFive Cheat Sheet will cover this typical and useful prop betting strategies:
Stay Updated: Keep an eye on injury reports and lineup changes, as these can drastically affect player performance.
Analyze Matchups: Use DVP and other metrics to evaluate how players have performed against specific defenses.
Monitor Playing Time: Pay attention to players who may see increased minutes due to injuries or matchups.
Research Trends: Look for players who are on hot streaks or those who have consistently performed well against specific opponents.
Game Preview Tab
The Game Preview tab is your entry point for analyzing daily matchups. It provides a snapshot of the games taking place on a given day, including essential details such as:
Projected Starting Lineups: Knowing who will start can influence betting decisions, especially in terms of player props.
Injury Reports: Stay updated on player statuses, which can dramatically impact game outcomes and prop bets.
Minutes Changes: Analyzing which players are expected to see increased or decreased playing time is crucial. More minutes typically mean more opportunities for stats, impacting prop bets.
Matchup Quality: Assess whether the matchup is favorable or unfavorable for specific players.
Injury Reports:
Injury reports are critical in the NBA, as they can shift the odds and impact player performance. Within the NBA Cheat Sheet, you'll find an expected status tab that indicates whether players are likely to play or sit out. The "Status" is the latest news that we have on that player.
Projected Minutes
Projected minutes can be a game-changer. Players expected to see a significant increase in minutes can become prime candidates for prop bets. For instance, if a bench player is slated to start due to an injury, their prop lines may offer value. Conversely, if a player is expected to have reduced minutes, their prop lines may not be worth the risk.
Much of the data in the Cheat Sheet is driven by the Projected Minutes. These projected minutes will fluctuate during the day based on game lines and injuries. To ensure maximum accuracy, Projected Minutes are gathered from various sources.
PrizePicks Cheat Sheet
*Note Underdog Cheat Sheet, and a Traditional Sportsbook Cheat Sheet will be available soon as well. They will be the exact same as the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet.
Navigating the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet
The search function within the tool allows bettors to quickly find specific players and their corresponding prop bets. This feature is particularly useful on busy game days when multiple matchups are occurring. Simply type in the player’s name, and the cheat sheet will populate relevant stats and betting lines.
Along with the Search function you can select which team, or game you would like to view. You can sort based off of the Bet Tag.
Identifying the Best Bets
Once you have a grasp of the players and matchups, the next step is identifying the best bets. The NBA Cheat Sheet categorizes bets into different tags:
Hammer Bets: These are bets that check all the boxes for a solid wager, showing a high likelihood of hitting.
Great Bets: Bets that are still favorable but may have slight discrepancies in the data.
Good Bets: These bets are generally acceptable but might not be as strong as the previous categories.
Push Bets: These are bets where the data points are not aligned, suggesting caution.
Utilizing Edge Ratings
Edge ratings provide insight into the likelihood of a bet hitting based on the AVERAGE SPORTSBOOKS BOOK DATA. A higher edge rating suggests that the bet has a better chance of being successful. Always look for bets with solid edge ratings, as these can guide you towards more profitable wagering opportunities.
This is what determines what is a good Over or Under bet on the Cheat Sheet. The Edge is based on the long-term profitable approach we have over PrizePicks. To view simply strategy of this hover over the "WIN RATE FOR 6 SLIP BETS", or "How to Use the Tool Correctly" text. This will give you the mathematical breakdown.
Projection Data
The various projection data points include: the Underdog Line (UD), the Average Sportsbook Line (SB), Projected Line (Proj), Player Average (Ave), The average sportsbook line adjusted for the players projected minutes (VPM), and the Defense vs Position Projection, adjusted for projected minutes (DVP).
Analyzing Player Performance with DVP (Defense vs. Position)
Another valuable aspect of the NBA Cheat Sheet is the DVP projection, which evaluates how players perform against specific matchups. By examining DVP rankings, bettors can identify advantageous or challenging matchups for players. For example, if a player has a favorable DVP ranking, it may indicate they are likely to exceed their prop totals. The DVP projection is based off of the per minute production given up to that position for that specific prop then adjusted for a players projected minutes.
Player Projection (Proj)
Now yes these are all projection tools, but the Player Projection (Proj) is based off of DFS related insights typically used for DraftKings, or FanDuel DFS. Due to this these projections tend to lead to a player having more upside. Just something to note when looking into the data.
Player Average (Ave)
The Player average is just the players average for that prop adjusted for his projected minutes played.
Vegas Per Minute Projection (VPM)
The VPM is taking that Average Sportsbook Line / Players Average Minutes * Projected Minutes. What we are looking to see here is just how much the potential for additional or lost minutes could change the actual line that we are getting.
Projected Minutes (MIN)
At the very end of the data column you will see the players projected minutes. Directly below the players projected minutes is the difference between his average minutes and his projected minutes.
Color Code / Conditional Formatting
Green = Data Points suggest betting the Over.
Red = Data Points suggest betting the Under.
Selecting a Player to Get Player Profile.
To view a snapshot of what is going into the bet, while also seeing the players game log, and the sportsbook data that is going into that bet you can click on the data table on the top of the page for that specific play/prop, and it will populate all the data like you see in the picture directly below.
Please note that you do not click on a player like on the example pictured above that data is all random.
Game Logs: Tracking Performance Over Time
The game logs feature allows bettors to track player performance over recent games. This data is crucial for identifying trends and making informed decisions. You can see how many minutes a player has been getting, did they get into foul trouble or not. You can also use the search bar to type in an opponent (has to be the opponents abbreviated name, you can find this under the Players name in the data table or in the player snapshot).
Sportsbook Odds:
This will show you all the Sportsbooks that are currently giving us lines for this bet. Typically speaking the more books that are giving us lines the better.
Note only American books are shown on this page. Other books not based in the US are pulled in, to account for the Average Sportsbook Lines as well.
Conclusion
The NBA Cheat Sheet is a powerful tool for anyone looking to enhance their prop betting experience. By understanding how to navigate its features, analyze data, and apply strategic thinking, you can improve your chances of success. Always remember to bet responsibly.
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