Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Quick Updates Made to the Website for Golf: Added in Head to Head Betting Picks Tool, this can be found under the betting tool. This will be for both the tournament and the round. This will compare the specific book, against the average sportsbook odds from several different sources to see if we are gaining an edge on a bet. Another way we can gain an edge is by comparing the NineToFive Odds against the Book odds. Below is an example using the tournament only market. (I will have a video breaking down how to use this tool at some point)
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB)
Wedge Scoring (Scoring Stats less than 125 yards)
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat
Ball Striking (BS)
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Event History Last 4 Years
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I am not really a big fan lineup process this week. That is mostly due to the extreme price of pairing Xander and Scottie together in a studs and duds build which we know we are supposed to do this week. Now its not all too hard to make a build with both of them but this is a week where both Xander and Scottie have struggled to produce good results at this course.
Weather:
Rain on Wednesday will likely lead to a softer course meaning easier scoring could happened on Thursday. Overall there is not a tee time advantage.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
Aaron Rai
Hideki
Collin Morikawa
Patrick Cantlay
Corey Conners
The picture above I think presents a good callout of why this week might be more difficult in terms of predictability. I do not expect to hit an outright this week.
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
These are golfers that the NineToFive Tag views as core plays this week, and I do agree. Both are in great form, have great or good enough course history. Both are top 10 stat fits and top 10 course specialists.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
The data is only knocking Scottie and Xander slightly, and this is all due to their course history. The nice part about this week and some of the values that we have is you could easily fit Morikawa, Conners, and one of Xander or Scottie into a build.
Hideki is a play this week that does standout, the issue with Hideki lately is which Hideki will we get. Good Hideki or bad Hideki. Good Hideki will give us a chance at winning this week. Bad Hideki could end up finishing dead last.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
One player that I probably over-looked this week is Sam Burns. He has been playing much better golf as of late. The probably with him and Theegala is their price. I view both of them as GPP only plays.
Rory, Aberg, and Fleetwood I almost view as lineup fillers this week as I will be building somewhat based off of value this week, then seeing which pay up options I have left.
Max Greyserman will be tough to avoid this week, the only concern that I have with him is whether or not he will be mentally sharp this week coming in off of choking away last weeks tournament. Still he has finished 2nd in two straight events and he is in the 5th best form int he field.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
Davis Thompson is a play that I will be using a lot of as I think he will outproduce his price tag and give us a chance at a top 10 finish.
The rest of the golfers here are golfers that should be able to out produce their price tags. Thus they should be good options to use in builds with Scottie or Xander.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Conners, Morikawa, Greyserman, Thompson, Xander, Scottie
GPP: Burns, Rory, Theegala
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Good build, not great, that is the week that we have.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
Love that Conners is not coming in too chalky, actually a lot of the top plays are not coming int hat high owned. It seems everyone is ignoring Scottie and his poor course history (relatively) and they are just playing a ton of him.
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