Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
2025 Season Results:
Betting Units Won in 2025: 38.5 (Includes all bets called out either on video, X, or on this write-up)
Weeks Cashed (profit) in DFS: 3/3 = 100%
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections.
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Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Effective Birdie to Bogey Ration (Combination Stat - Bogey Avoidance and B2B) Key Stat 1
Par 5 Scoring (Par4) Key Stat 2
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Around Green, and Putting (Combination Stat - SG ARG+PUTT) Key Sat 4
The tough part about the tournament this week in terms of stat fit and key stats is the fact that the first two rounds will take place on two different courses. One course is easier to score on, and one is more difficult. The courses do play differently, so to get as many golfers across the cut line as possible, we will look at more general stats but also dial in. That is why you're seeing some combination stats.
We do know that B2B ratio and Par 5 scoring are two of the most key stats this week. Golfers can make mistakes, and they need to capitalize on the par 5s to do so. Due to the length of the south course, we do see that Putting and Around the Green play tend to be a premium here. Lastly, due to the length, we do see Long Iron scoring/accuracy play a good role in who is or isn't successful.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years Course History
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED / Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I do like this week a little bit more, and especially for betting purposes, it really feels like a straightforward week. The issue that I have this week for DFS purposes is closing out my build. No matter how I close out my builds I end up not liking it. That will be the theme is just having a lot of lineups with 5 golfers that you really like and a 6th golfer where you shrug your shoulders and move on.
Weather:
The weather for The Farmers Insurance Open looks solid throughout the week and most likely will not play a role.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Targeting South Course: Hideki 14/1m Sungjae Im 18/1, Jason Day 20/1
Targeting North Course: Zalatoris 18/1, Ludvig Aberg 12/1, Aaron Rai 28/1
3 Ball Bets Round 1:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical
thresholds used to determine winners.
We have two golfers that are "Good" outright bets, and both are golfers I will be betting on. Even at 10/1, they are both ranking top 10 or better in all the key metrics. I agree with the data here.
My Outright Bets:
Hideki Matsuyama - 11/1 BetMGM
Ludvig Aberg - 10/1 All Books
Taylor Pendirth - 35/1 Most Books
Aaron Rai - 55/1 FanDuel
Keegan Bradley - 22/1 All Books
Max Greyserman 25/1 Most Books
Jason Day 28/1 Most Books
Will Zalatoris (One the fence, don't want to over extend too much)
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag.
My Takeaways:
I agree with Aberg, and Rai. To me they are both easy clicks. Both of them are coming into this event checking all the boxes, and both I do not see any reason why we shouldn't be getting to them. I would also add in that Hideki should be a core play as well.
Shane Lowry would be a core play had we seen him play recently but we haven't. Targeting golfers that have had multiple competitive rounds this season will lead to more predictable results. Lowry I fully expect to have a good week, but at the same time maybe he finds himself shaking off the rust.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
My Takeaways:
I do really like all of these plays this week. Like I mentioned I will be using Hideki as a Core Play, and I will also be using Taylor Pendrith as a Core Play. Pendrith is clearly one of the better plays this week especially when you consider his price. The one concern is that he is coming in off of a 45th place finish, but this is a course that sets up much better for his game. We see that with his Course History where he has 3 made cut and a top 10 finish.
I do worry that Keegan Bradley, and Mark Hubbard are slightly too high priced, but I get what the data is seeing. Theegala also feels slightly too high priced.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
My Takeaways:
This is where we see the fall off in the plays this week, every golfer here does come with some risk. Ben Griffin and Max Greyserman are in some elite form, but both missed the cut at this event last year. Tony Finau has pretty solid course history with 3 top 10s, and a missed cut here over the past 4 years, but he is coming in off of a missed cut. I do expect Finau to bounce back this week but it's never a great to see a golfer missing a cut.
Joseph Bramlett is a play that I would be going out of my way to target had we seen him play thus far in 2025, but I would imagine that is also why we are getting him this cheap. All we really need out of him at this price tag is a made cut, and I do think he has a good chance of doing that.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
My Takeaways:
Will Zalatoris is getting knocked for his bad form (relative to the field), and overall he does struggle on courses like this, but not this course, so I think we can overlook the Specialist rank for him, and really if we just look over his past 5 starts he would vault into the 7th best form. He certainly seems like he could be back to the old Zalatoris. Now the concern is that he is going to probably be high-owned, and if he is I could see not being on him as much as the field is.
Sungjae Im missed the cut at this event last year, and is coming in off of a missed cut, that is what makes him risky. Jason Day has two missed cuts at this event but also two top 10 finishes. Given what we saw from him last week I think there is a great chance he has another great week.
Stephan Jaeger just looks like a worse version of Jason Day, I don't see him winning but besides that he makes for a solid GPP play.
Justin Rose is a golfer I expect to make the cut but I worry he is too high priced. I would rather get to Vegas who can randomly pop. Justin Lower I think I like the most out of this group of golfer (considering price). He has two top 10 finishes over his past 4 starts on the PGA Tour, and overall he is a solid play across the board.
There are some value plays that I will be going to that are not pictured: Sam Ryder, Jeremy Paul, Trey Mullinax, Taylor Montgomery
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Aberg, Hideki, Rai, Pendrith, Keegan, Bramlett
GPP: Day, Sungjae, Zalatoris, Hall, Jaeger
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Both lineups really show why I cannot go too crazy, as I do not love how I am closing out my builds. I mentioned I worry about just how ready Lowry will be, and Griffin has had spotty course history. I don't mind getting to Hubbard, we need him to play one enough on the South Course, and score a bunch on the North Course to make the cut for us.
Optimal Build: From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
PROJECTED OWNERSHIP / OWNERSHIP LEVERAGE
From the NineToFive Ownership Leverage Page.
LETS HAVE ANOTHER GOOD WEEK THIS WEEK, GOOD LUCK!
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