Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the BMW Championship.
Quick Updates Made to the Website for Golf: Added in Head to Head Betting Picks Tool, this can be found under the betting tool. This will be for both the tournament and the round. This will compare the specific book, against the average sportsbook odds from several different sources to see if we are gaining an edge on a bet. Another way we can gain an edge is by comparing the NineToFive Odds against the Book odds. Below is an example using the tournament only market. (I will have a video breaking down how to use this tool at some point)
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Total Driving (TD)
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat
Ball Striking (BS)
Strokes Gained Off the Tee (SGOT)
This is a unique week this week where we do not have any course history to go off of thus that could lead to a little bit more randomness. The key stats that I am looking at this week have been determined by looking at key stats from Jack Nicklaus Courses, as well as which stats pop up the most when we see a new course in action.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Looking at the last two Jack Nicklaus tournament (courses) we have seen on tour this year. This is done because we do not have any course history to go off of.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
This is another week where with the limited field it is going to be tough to make a good build. I will say I do like the build process slightly more this week than I did last week. I think this week will be a little bit more predictable as well.
Weather:
Weather seems to be a none issue this week.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
Scottie 3/1
Xander 6/1
I think this is a week where one of Scottie Scheffler or Xander Schauffele win, and I will be betting that way.
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
There really isn't any that you can say negatively about Scottie and Xander. The nice thing about them as plays is that I find it much easier to fit them both into builds this week. I do think this will end up being a shoot out between these two.
Greyserman is a play that I really like this week and I really do not understand the pricing. Something that I do understand is the slow start that he had last week after choking away a PGA Tour victory the week prior. He finished his first round in almost dead last and then went on to finish 33rd. Hopefully those mental woes are behind him, because if they are this is some of the best value we have gotten all year.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
Morikawa and Conners are two plays the NineToFive Model would naturally like, both have been extremely reliable golfers, thus their safety is extremely high, the issue is that this is a no-cut event, and at their prices this week, we need to focus on upside. I think they both make a lot of sense as plays, I just have to knock them slightly.
Pendrith is a great upside play at a cheap price tag. He has consistently been making cuts and has played well at courses that fit his game. I felt that the course for the Barracuda Championship was one of his best course fits and he finished top 10 there. Now I don't think we will get a top 10 finish out of him this week but I think a top 20 finish is likely.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
All golfers are golfers that I like at their prices, and I really do not mind the idea of doing a fair and balanced build with Cantlay, Finau and Burns. (and by that I mean I will be doing this in a few builds).
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
With Aaron Rai I am mostly worried about his price, I still think he is a great play, and if someone likes him more than I do I would not blame you.
The next three golfers are all golfers that I like to include in lineups with Scottie and Xander. it seems like everyone is like Dunlap as a bet this week mostly due to his (lucky) win on a Jack course as well as his 12th place finish at a 12 course. Of course his 5th place finish is attractive as well. He is a fine value play but if he is too high owned Cole and Eckroat are just as good of play.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + Dunlap, Cole, Eckroat
GPP:
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
The reason why I am optimistic about this week is because of the lineup paths like this.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
I will have to take a look at what is going on with the leverage tag. But I think there isn't too many take aways for ownership this week.
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