Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the BLACK DESERT Championship.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B)
Good Drive % (GD%)
Ball Striking (BS)
Greens Gained (GG)
We have not seen this course before, thus the key stats that we are looking at this week are somewhat of a guess. I believe that accuracy on this track will lead to golfers having good results. This is due off of the fact that this will play out as a true desert style course, where when you miss the fairway there is not much rough, and if you miss the rough you never know what type of lie you will get.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Waste Management Phoenix Open - This is the only somewhat desert style course on the PGA Tour.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I do really like the fair and balanced builds that I have been able to make this week, but this is still a new course, in the fall swing, those are two variables that will likely lead to this not being as predictable as we would like.
Weather:
Good weather for this week.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
I can fully get behind Keith Mitchell, Seamus Power and Andrew Novak as outright bets as they are all to me and to the data some of the best picks to win.
I also love Patrick Fishburn this week who is a golfer that is from Utah which is where the tournament is taking place.
Justin Lower is the closest thing to golfer that is "checking all the boxes" this week, you can get him as an outright bet at around 50-65/1 odds.
Doug Ghim 41/1
Chan Kim 35/1
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
Andrew Novak - Novak has made 7 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour, leading him to be in the 3rd best form in the field. He ranks out top 10 in the field in Birdie to Bogey Ratio and Greens Gained. At his price I think he is someone in DFS and in betting that is an easy click.
Doug Ghim - Ghim falls under the same umbrella as a play for me as does Novak (and Lower). Ghim has made 4 straight cuts in a row, and he is a top 10 stat fit ranking out top 12 or better in all the key stats that we are looking at. He is a solid play on paper and is too cheap.
Lower has been in a great form and is a solid stat fit. Playing these 3 makes the lineup process (hopefully) easy.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
Mitchell and Power are both plays that I will be more than happy to pay up for when the build allows for it. Power has now made 7 straight cuts in a row with multiple top 15 finishes during that span. Keith Mitchell is again when of the best stat fits in the field, and one of the better plays the only worry I have with Mitchell is how he will deal with the disappointment of his late bogey to ensure that he would not win.
Patrick Fishburn has been slightly hit or miss, but he is from Utah, and he is a great stat fit that has shown upside. I think he has a good chance to win.
Chan Kim ranks out top 10 or better in all the key stats that I am looking at this week, and has made 3 straight cuts in a row. He also ranks out top 10 or better in his Specialist rank. It would not be surprising to see him in contention to win.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
Now I would rather pay up for Mitchell or Power, but if I am unable to I am more than happy to get to Kirk. Kirk has made 7 straight cuts, leading him to rank out 10 10 in recent form rank in the field. The concern with Kirk is that he is not a great stat fit.
Kizzire followed up his win in his previous event with an 11th place finish last week. Maybe Kizzire has found some great fall form. He is a great stat fit, and thus I think he makes for a great GPP play.
The only good thing about Rodgers missing the cut last week is that we now get him cheaper. Rodgers couldn't get anything going in round two shooting an even par, and -4 total to miss the cut. Still not a terrible week for him, but like all "easy" scoring events sometimes shooting -4 is playing well but not well enough.
Smotherman you play to chase his great made cut streak. (7 straight made cuts on the PGA Tour - However does have some missed cuts on the KFT during that stretch)
Norlander is a great stat fit that should give us a good chance at a made cut.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
I am pretty surpised by the price of Kevin CHappell this week as he has made 5 straight cuts in a row now on the PGA Tour, tough to find that good of form in general this week let alone below 7K.
The rest of the plays are all hit or miss options, all plays that should make the cut but also wouldn't be shocking to see them miss the cut. If they do make the cut I could see them giving us a top 10 finish.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + Kim, Mitchell, Power, Kirk, Smotherman, Chappell, Kirk
GPP: Hoey, Meissner, Norlander
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
Pretty happy with what the ownership projections are showing, no need for me to make any adjustments.
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