The 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational kicks off March 6 at Bay Hill, a par-72, 7,466-yard beast designed by the King himself. This Signature Event brings 72 top players—think Scheffler and McIlroy—to battle firm greens, long par-3s, and a 36-hole cut to the top 50 and ties (or within 10 of the lead). Here’s my breakdown of core plays, bets, lineup process, value picks, and the player pool ready to tame Arnie’s track.
Please note I will be doing a separate members only write-up for the Puerto Rico Open. This is due to the small size of the PGA DFS contests. I don't want to ruin my edge or the NineToFive members edge. That should be posted on Wednesday early afternoon.
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
Betting Units Profit in 2025: 16.5
Weeks Cashed in DFS: 5/8 = 72% (1 push)
H2H Bets: 46/65 | 23
3-Ball: 62/123 | 34.4
FRL: 6/48 | 1.1
Outrights: 0/49 | -56
Prop Sites: 38/55 | 15
2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Bogey Avoidance (BA) Key Stat 1
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2
Total Driving (TD %) Scoring Key Stat 3
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 4
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 5
200+ Scoring - Key Stat 6
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Betting wise this week you can do one of two strategies just bet on Scottie and Rory and your betting card is done. If you're not doing that it is also somewhat simple as Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and Russell Henley are all stand out options. That will be the case this week in PGA DFS.
You can easily fit in Rory, Cantlay, and JT into a build if you would like to do so. You can also easily fit Scottie/Rory, or Scottie/Cantlay. That is due to us having a lot of great value options. Great in the sense that they should be able to make the cut.
Now this tournament will have a cut, but it is essentially a tournament that we should treat as a no-cut event, just with slightly more caution than a no-cut event. The best way to take advantage of these events is to target the golfers that give us the best chance at the highest position points that is clearly Scottie and Rory this week. Thankfully Nick Taylor on paper is an extremely good option to pair with Scottie and Rory this week. After that we are baking in a little of not being unlucky with a missed cut.
Weather:
The weather on Saturday could end up playing a big factor into the tournament. Now since it is only one day it does not make sense to attack purely good wind players for the full slate, but on that day for showdowns, and betting we could find ourselves looking to that to gain an edge.
  Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
IÂ will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Jake Knapp's career, and record setting RD1 stopped us from hitting both Russell Henley and Daniel Berger at 45/1 (chopped). It would be really awesome to finally get a FULL FRL hit this year. We are more than due.
Scottie Scheffler 12/1 Pointsbet
Collin Morikawa 35/1 FD
Daniel Berger 60/1 FD
Hideki Matsuyama 35/1 FD
JT 40/1 FD
Russell Henley 55/1 FD
Puerto Rico Open FRL:
Brice Garnett 60/1 FD
Ryan Gerard 45/1 Pointsbet
Ben Kohles 60/1 FD
Hayden Springer 60/1 FD
Kevin Roy 60/1 FD
Danny Walker 80/1 FD
3 Ball Bets Round 1:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Justin Thomas over Xander - 2.23
Daniel Berger over Ben Griffin - 2.31
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Collin Morikawa +105 to beat Ludvig Aberg BETMGM.
  Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1Â = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical
 thresholds used to determine winners.
Again to me this is a week in which you either just go Scottie and be done, or do Scottie and Rory and be done. You can get Scottie at 4.1/1 on Betonline. You can also get Rory at 8.5.1 on BetMGM.
Below will be other bets you could consider if you're not going that route.
JT 28/1 FD
Russell Henley 45/1 DK
Patrick Cantlay 30/1 FD
Nick Taylor 150/1 Pointsbet (just insane line by Pointsbet for a golfer that ranks top 5 in recent form and is a top 10 stat fit this week. I don't think he will will but some books are giving us his line at 80/1.
Puerto Rico Open Bets:
Ryan Gerard 25/1 Most Books
Kevin Roy 30/1 Betonline
Brice Garnett 40/1 Pointsbet
Poormans Kevin Roy (Ricky Castillo) 60/1
Ben Kohles 50/1
Hayden Springer 50/1
Lanto Griffin 45/1
  Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
My Takeaways:
Yea pretty simple and easy to see why these are the best plays this week in terms of safety and upside. Not much more to add, we should be getting to all of them.
     Data Tag: High Exposure
 Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
 My Takeaways:
I will say Morikawa having flat-out terrible course history is something. He is the second-best stat fit in the field and the 7th best specialist as well. When you think of a course that is good for a ball striker, you'd think of Morikawa, so it is strange that he has terrible course history. I won't be getting to him this much. Maybe more as a mid-exposure play.
Sam Burns, I worry, might not have the upside we need out of him to pay off this price tag, and this is a good callout as to why I like the idea of just paying up for likely top 10s, 5s, and possibly wins. Why mess around with a golfer whose best-case scenario gives us a top 5 rather than their likely floor being a top 25, which is what we get with Burns? I understand why the data likes him, but I need more upside.
Justin Thomas is the golfer that has great upside, finishing 12th and 21st at this event the last two years. He is coming in as the 4th best stat fit in the field. He also has the 6th best form in the field with 3 top 10 finishes over his past 4 starts. To me, if you are paying up for a golfer not named Cantlay, Scheffler, or McIlroy, you are paying up for JT.
   Data Tag: Mid Exposure
 Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
 My Takeaways:
Due to Aberg and his price, I have rarely even thought of him as an option this week. Now with Aberg, we are getting a little skewed data with a WD and a bad 42nd place finish, which he'd probably say was due to him being sick. But even still, I really don't like him as much as the top 4 golfers I have already mentioned. Could he pop? Sure, but I won't be kicking myself for not being on him a lot.
Sepp Straka is fascinating this week as well. This is another player like Morikawa that I would think would have much better results at this tournament, but for whatever reason, he has struggled. He is a great stat fit, in mostly good form, but he is nothing more than a GPP play.
    Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
 My Takeaways:
Xander would be a golfer we would be going out of our way to support this week had it not been for his injury that could potentially still hinder him a bit. On top of that, he does not have the best course history. It is crazy, but this is the first week in about 2 years I could end up not supporting Xander at all.
From there, the only golfers that I am trying to get to this week are Keegan, Ben Griffin, Min Woo Lee, and JJ Spaun. All of them are correctly priced, I would say, but they are all quality options at their prices, especially compared to other golfers around them.
Now there are more golfers that I will be getting to that the data does not like as much. I will be getting to Hideki on the top end a little bit. Then I will get to Bhatia, Day, and Kim in the 7K range a little in GPPs.
The value tier is loaded with good enough options including my favorite option in Nick Taylor.
I also think Harris English, CBez, Billy Ho all give us a a good chance at a made cut. Another player that I have gotten onto as the week has progressed in Stephan Jaeger as well for the same reasons.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Player Pool is setup directly with what I view as cash plays this week.
GPP: Straka, Morikawa, Burns, Aberg
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
I really like this build it should have enough safety and upside to really do well this week. The concern would be not being on Scottie, and another potential concern for Rodgers is how many events in a row is too many events? Can't know Rodgers though he has been playing some great golf.
The second lineup is an example of getting 3 of the best golf plays into a build while trying to get lucky on the bottom end. This will probably be my strategy for a lot of hand builds is just mixing and matching from what I view are the best plays for the most optimal lineups.
Optimal Build: From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
PROJECTED OWNERSHIP / OWNERSHIP LEVERAGE
From the NineToFive Ownership Leverage Page.
I really don't think this is a week in which we need to care about ownership as it currently sits. We continue to see people not attack these events correctly (Signature events) and we can continue to benefit.
Alright, that is all for the week, hope you enjoyed the write-up. If you're a NineToFive Member I will see you in the Discord. If you're not a NineToFive Member, think about becoming one! If you're coming from X (Twitter) a like and a retweet is greatly appreciated on the post of this article. (Link back to X: https://x.com/925_Sports/status/1894552117311889580Â )