3M Open: Betting Picks + Fantasy Golf Deep Dive (Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, Ownership Leverage, and Player Pool)
- 925 Sports
- Jul 24, 2024
- 8 min read
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for the 3M Open.
Quick Updates Made to the Website for Golf: Added in Head to Head Betting Picks Tool, this can be found under the betting tool. This will be for both the tournament and the round. This will compare the specific book, against the average sportsbook odds from several different sources to see if we are gaining an edge on a bet. Another way we can gain an edge is by comparing the NineToFive Odds against the Book odds. Below is an example using the tournament only market. (I will have a video breaking down how to use this tool at some point)
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this writeup, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
I have started a golf specific content on YouTube where I will be posting all of my golf content. Below is a link to subscribe to the channel. Please make sure to do so.
Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB)
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5)
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - NineToFive Stat
Strokes Gained Putting (SG P)
Ball Striking (BS)
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Event History Last 4 Years
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
It is way to easy to make a good build this week thus it will be a week in which I am attacking.
Weather:
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Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
Tony Finau 11/1
Sam Burns 18/1
Sam Stevens 65/1 (Bovada) or 55 BetMGM
Akshay Bhatia 20/1
Luke Clanton 28/1
Erik Van Rooyen 40/1 (FanDuel)
Half Units on Ben Silverman 110/1 Fanduel + Max Greyserman 70/1 Fanduel
Rico Hoey 75/1 PointsBet
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
Tony Finau would be a no doubt play and click this week had he not missed the cut last week. I do believe that a lot of that missed cut was due to a poor weather draw. I am somewhat just writing off that missed cut, and if you do that he is an extremely easy play. Even with that missed cut he still ranks out 3rd in recent form. He ranks top 6 or better in all key metrics and is a former winner at this event. I am shocked that we are able to get him at 11/1 odds, and that he is this cheap in DFS.
Sam Burns is the one golfer that is coming in checking all the boxes this week making 5 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour overall ranking 5th in recent form. He is also a top 10 stat fit, and top 20 in Specialist, and Course History Rank. Due to the cheap pricing that we have this week it is actually very easy to fit Sam Burns and Tony Finau together in your builds.
Sam Stevens is also pretty easy to fit into a build with Burns and Finau. The pricing of Sam Stevens is probably the worst one that we have this week. He has made 4 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour and is in the 4th best form in the field. He finished 10th at this event last year, and is the 3rd best Specialist in the field. He ranks out as the 8th best play yet he is priced at below 8K and you can get him at 50+/1 odds.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
If you are not going to be paying up for Burns or Finau both Bhatia, and Clanton are solid plays. Their games should fit the style of what it takes for win on this track. This is called out by both golfers ranking out as top 5 Specialist. They are both golfers that have recently been in contention and I think they will be in contention to win again this week.
Patrick Rodgers is at a strange price point where I have not been able to get to this week, but he is certainly a very solid play on paper. Rodgers has made the cut at this event in 3 straight tries, and he has been in great form. He should be a safe play to make the cut.
Chan Kim, and Rico Hoey are two golfers we have been on a decent amount, especially recently. They have both made 3 straight cuts in a row, and Rico Hoey has 3 top 10 finishes in his last 4 starts.
Max Greyserman, and Ben Silverman both have some of the longest made cut streaks going in this event, and they are both top 25 stat fits. These two feel like pretty easy plug and plays at their price tags, espeically in builds that include Finau, Burns, and/or Sam Stevens.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
EVR, Poston, and Pendirth are plays I think make for great GPP plays as I think they all of the potential to win, just their prices are a little bit too juiced up.
Hayden Buckley has been playing well ranking out 12th in the field in recent form rank. He played at this event two years ago and finished top 30. At this price he is someone that also makes fitting the core plays into your builds very easy.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
All of these plays I feel are great GPP plays, and none are really good cash plays, but I do think they all hold top 10 upside. I like them all as lineup fillers.
Lower Exposure
High priced golfers that I will be underweight on from the field but still want exposure to, and more GPP only plays.
Takeaways:
All are fomo plays that I want to be on in are 5% of my builds.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core + Silverman, Greyserman, Rodgers, Clanton, Buckley
GPP:Meissner, EVR, Pendrith, Kizzire
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Again there are so many ways to make a good build this week, and the lineup above is just one example of them. This is showing how easy it is to fit the core plays into your builds.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
I have an extremely hard time believing that Austin Eckroat is going to be that high owned, this would be pretty random. He is an easy fade at that ownership. Almost same goes for Hadwin, and Grillo. Heck Ghim and Hodges are all a bit to high owned as well.
It looks like a lot of people are having the same issues with Patrick Rodgers as I am, he is clearly a very solid play this week, and now is clearly a great leverage play. I will now be making some lineups where I go out of my way to target him. The reason why Eckroat and his ownership is strange is looking at Sam Stevens he is only coming in around 10% owned. That a massive edge as well.
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